UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
Newark, USA
1 Feb 2014
Middleweight
VS
51%
Catone
49%
Watson
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
NC
Nick Catone
"The Jersey Devil"
10 – 4
6'0"72" reachSouthpaw44 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 13
TW
Tom Watson
"Kong"
17 – 9
Well-Rounded2-fight slide43 yrsOrthodox73" reach6'1"
CFR 13

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Catone

This is a genuine toss-up — Catone at 51% vs Watson at 49% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Watson has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Catone
Watson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'1"
72"
Reach
+73"
44
Age
+43
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Catone
Watson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
13.3
12.7
38.7
Performance Avg
35.4
31
Quality of Victory
40
30
Momentum Score
10
Catone
Watson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.4
1.4
37%
Strike Accuracy
45%
1.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.6
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
11
0
Body
0
1
Leg
11
RangeRange
7Distance18
1Clinch3
0Ground1
Catone
Watson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.8
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
2.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
2.5
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Catone
Watson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
72
90
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/14 fights
Chin rating based on
7/26 fights
Catone
Watson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
30
10
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Catone
Watson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
25%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Catone
Watson
Striking1.0 / 5.6Volume7.0 / 4.6Grappling3.8 / 1.2Wrestling2.7 / 0.8Submission2.5 / 0.0Pressure3.3 / 4.4
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.6
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.4
7.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.6
Catone
Strike Zones
Watson
Catone
Attacking
7HEAD0BODY1LEGS8 landed
Absorbing
11HEAD0BODY11LEGS22 absorbed
Watson
Attacking
11HEAD0BODY11LEGS22 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD0BODY1LEGS8 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Catone targets the head (88% of attacks) — Watson absorbs 88% of strikes there
🎯Watson targets the head (50% of attacks) — Catone absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Catone
RND
Watson
0/0R00/0

Catone · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0105.2W2.8L5.5L4.5W4.5W5.5L2.8L4.5W2009-022009-082011-032012-122014-02
WinLossTrend

Watson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.5L5.2W5.5L5.5L4.5W5.5L5.5L2012-092013-082014-082015-08
WinLossTrend

Catone · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Tom WatsonRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2 · 2014-02
L · Sub · R2
TJ WaldburgerRating 2.8
Submission
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale · 2012-12
L · R3
Chris CamozziRating 5.5
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida · 2012-06
W · Dec · R3
Constantinos PhilippouRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones · 2011-03
W · Dec · R3
Jesse ForbesRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz · 2010-01

Watson · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Chris CamozziRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Saint Preux · 2015-08
L · Dec · R3
Rafael NatalRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz · 2015-01
W · Dec · R3
Sam AlveyRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint Preux · 2014-08
L · Dec · R3
Nick CatoneRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2 · 2014-02
L · Dec · R3
Thales LeitesRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung · 2013-08

News & Media

Nick Catone · Tom Watson
← Back to fights