UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Maldonado
Sao Paulo, Brazil
31 May 2014
Welterweight
VS
56%
Thiago
44%
Umalatov
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
PT
Paulo Thiago
18 – 9
5'11"74" reachOrthodox45 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 14
GU
Gasan Umalatov
"Cobra"
17 – 4
Well-Rounded2-fight slide43 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'11"
CFR 11

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Thiago

This is a genuine toss-up — Thiago at 56% vs Umalatov at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Thiago has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.

Umalatov has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Thiago's chin rating of 44 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Thiago
Umalatov
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
5'11"
74"+
Reach
71"
45
Age
+43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Thiago
Umalatov
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
13.5
10.7
37.5
Performance Avg
25.0
37
Quality of Victory
25
39
Momentum Score
33
Thiago
Umalatov
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
1.0
35%
Strike Accuracy
36%
2.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
6
6
Body
1
3
Leg
1
RangeRange
15Distance8
3Clinch0
0Ground0
Thiago
Umalatov
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
2.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Thiago
Umalatov
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
44
94
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/27 fights
Chin rating based on
4/21 fights
Thiago
Umalatov
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
39
33
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Thiago
Umalatov
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Thiago
Umalatov
Striking2.8 / 0.5Volume5.6 / 8.5Grappling3.0 / 2.4Wrestling2.1 / 1.7Submission2.0 / 0.0Pressure4.0 / 0.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
3.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.8
5.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.5
Thiago
Strike Zones
Umalatov
Thiago
Attacking
9HEAD6BODY3LEGS18 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD1BODY1LEGS8 absorbed
Umalatov
Attacking
6HEAD1BODY1LEGS8 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD6BODY3LEGS18 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Thiago targets the head (50% of attacks) — Umalatov absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Umalatov targets the head (75% of attacks) — Thiago absorbs 75% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Thiago
RND
Umalatov
0/0R00/0

Thiago · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.0W5.5L4.5W5.2W5.5L5.5L4.5W1.5L5.5L4.5W1.5L5.5L5.5L2009-022010-062012-112014-09
WinLossTrend

Umalatov · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0106.1L4.5W5.5L5.5L2014-022014-052014-102015-11
WinLossTrend

Thiago · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Sean SpencerRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arlovski · 2014-09
L · Dec · R3
Gasan UmalatovRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Maldonado · 2014-05
L · KO · R1
Brandon ThatchRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 2 · 2013-11
W · Dec · R3
Michel PrazeresRating 4.5
Decision
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold · 2013-05
L · Dec · R3
Dong Hyun KimRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Macao: Franklin vs Le · 2012-11

Umalatov · Last 4

L · Dec · R3
Viscardi AndradeRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 3 · 2015-11
L · Dec · R3
Cathal PendredRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story · 2014-10
W · Dec · R3
Paulo ThiagoRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Maldonado · 2014-05
L · Dec · R3
Neil MagnyRating 6.1
Decision
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2 · 2014-02

News & Media

Paulo Thiago · Gasan Umalatov
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