UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold
Newark, USA
18 Apr 2015
Light Heavyweight
VS
79%
Preux
21%
Cummins
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:54
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Preux
Preux is a strong favourite at 79% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 34 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Preux has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.
Cummins has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Preux's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Cummins has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Preux
Cummins
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
6'2"
80"+
Reach
76"
43+
Age
45
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Preux
Cummins
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
46.7
12.7
50.2
Performance Avg
39.0
48
Quality of Victory
34
72
Momentum Score
45
Preux
Cummins
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.8
48%
Strike Accuracy
54%
5.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.3
6 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
8
5
Body
1
0
Leg
5
RangeRange
11Distance5
0Clinch5
7Ground4
Preux
Cummins
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.3
/ 10
1.6
/ 10
2.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.1
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
5
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Preux
Cummins
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
4
KO/TKO Losses
5
4
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.8 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.2 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
28/45 fights
Chin rating based on
13/17 fights
Preux
Cummins
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
72
45
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Preux
Cummins
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
73%
33%
6
KO / TKO Wins
2
5
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Preux
Cummins
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.3
3.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
2.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.7
3.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.3
PreuxCummins
Strike Zones
Preux
Attacking
18 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedCummins
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
18 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Preux targets the head (72% of attacks) — Cummins absorbs 72% of strikes there
🎯Cummins targets the head (57% of attacks) — Preux absorbs 57% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Preux
RND
Cummins
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Preux · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Cummins · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.6WinLossTrend
Preux · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Ryan SpannRating 1.9Submission
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
W · Dec · R3
Kennedy NzechukwuRating 5.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura · 2024-03
L · KO · R1
Philipe LinsRating 2.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield · 2023-02
W · Dec · R3
Mauricio RuaRating 4.5Decision
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05
L · KO · R2
Tanner BoserRating 3.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov · 2021-06
Cummins · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Ed HermanRating 1.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Lee · 2019-05
L · Sub · R1
Misha CirkunovRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. Smith · 2018-10
L · Dec · R3
Corey AndersonRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee · 2018-04
W · Dec · R3
Gian VillanteRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum · 2017-07
W · Dec · R3
Jan BlachowiczRating 5.1Decision
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2 · 2017-04