UFC 145: Jones vs Evans
Atlanta, USA
21 Apr 2012
Lightweight
VS
88%
Bocek
12%
Alessio
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Bocek
Bocek is a strong favourite at 88% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 15 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Bocek has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 38 points.
Bocek has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Bocek's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Bocek
Alessio
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'10"
75"+
Reach
72"
44+
Age
46
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Bocek
Alessio
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.8
2.2
47.6
Performance Avg
0.0
38
Quality of Victory
0
48
Momentum Score
0
Bocek
Alessio
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
0.5
41%
Strike Accuracy
33%
1.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
12
0
Body
2
6
Leg
4
RangeRange
8Distance15
2Clinch3
4Ground0
Bocek
Alessio
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
5.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
3.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Bocek
Alessio
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
80
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
12 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/17 fights
Chin rating based on
5/52 fights
Bocek
Alessio
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
48
0
Current form
5-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
Bocek
Alessio
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
4
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Bocek
Alessio
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
5.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
3.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
5.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
BocekAlessio
Strike Zones
Bocek
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
18 absorbedAlessio
Attacking
18 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Bocek targets the head (57% of attacks) — Alessio absorbs 57% of strikes there
🎯Alessio targets the head (67% of attacks) — Bocek absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Bocek
RND
Alessio
0/0R00/0
Bocek · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Alessio · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Bocek · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Mike de la TorreRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Kennedy · 2014-04
L · Dec · R3
Rafael Dos AnjosRating 5.7Decision
UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit · 2012-11
W · Dec · R3
John AlessioRating 4.5Decision
UFC 145: Jones vs Evans · 2012-04
W · Dec · R3
Nik LentzRating 4.5Decision
UFC 140: Jones vs Machida · 2011-12
L · Dec · R3
Benson HendersonRating 5.5Decision
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields · 2011-04
Alessio · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Shane RollerRating 5.5Decision
UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2 · 2012-07
L · Dec · R3
Mark BocekRating 5.5Decision
UFC 145: Jones vs Evans · 2012-04
L · Dec · R3
Thiago AlvesRating 5.5Decision
Ortiz vs Shamrock 3: The Final Chapter · 2006-10
L · Dec · R3
Diego SanchezRating 5.5Decision
UFC 60: Hughes vs Gracie · 2006-05
L · Sub · R2
Pat MiletichRating 2.8Submission
UFC 26: Ultimate Field Of Dreams · 2000-06