METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo
Macau, China
30 May 2026
Welterweight
VS
54%
Matthews
46%
Harris
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Jake MatthewswinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Carlston Harris · UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Matthews
→
Actual result
Matthews wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Matthews at 54% vs Harris at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Matthews's chin rating of 24 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Harris has a chin rating of 32 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
MatthewsHarris
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Matthews
Harris
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'0"
73"
Reach
+76"
32+
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Matthews
Harris
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.2
47.5
48.4
Performance Avg
47.6
36
Quality of Victory
46
100
Momentum Score
45
Matthews
Harris
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.0
/ 10
3.5
/ 10
5.1
Style: Pressure
6.8
5.3
Style: Volume
3.0
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
2
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance2
0Clinch0
5Ground0
Matthews
Harris
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.2
/ 10
4.6
/ 10
2.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.2
3.8
Submission Style (/10)
5.0
6
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Matthews
Harris
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
24
32
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
4
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
18 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/30 fights
Chin rating based on
8/26 fights
Matthews
Harris
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
45
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
Matthews
Harris
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
44%
75%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
6
Submission Wins
2
9
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Matthews
Harris
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.5
4.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.6
2.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.2
3.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
5.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.8
5.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.0
MatthewsHarris
Strike Zones
Matthews
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedHarris
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Matthews targets the head (100% of attacks) — Harris absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Harris targets the head (100% of attacks) — Matthews absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Matthews
RND
Harris
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Matthews · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Carlston HarrisDecision
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · 2026-05
L · Sub · R3
Neil MagnySubmission
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W · Sub · R1
Chidi NjokuaniSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
W · Dec · R3
Francisco PradoDecision
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02
W · Dec · R3
Phil RoweDecision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
Harris · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Jake MatthewsDecision
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · 2026-05
L · KO · R3
Santiago PonzinibbioKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
L · KO · R1
Khaos WilliamsKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · 2024-05
W · Sub · R3
Jeremiah WellsSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Font · 2023-08
W · Dec · R3
Jared GoodenDecision
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