METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Ferguson
Mexico City, Mexico
5 Nov 2016
Lightweight
VS
89%
Reyes
11%
Novelli
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Marco Polo ReyeswinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Jason Novelli · UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Ferguson
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Reyes
→
Actual result
Reyes wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Reyes is a strong favourite at 89% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 15 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Reyes has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 49 points.
Reyes has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Reyes's chin rating of 12 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
ReyesNovelli
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Reyes
Novelli
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'0"
71"
Reach
41+
Age
47
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Reyes
Novelli
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.8
2.1
49.2
Performance Avg
0.0
49
Quality of Victory
0
50
Momentum Score
0
Reyes
Novelli
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.9
0.8
35%
Strike Accuracy
25%
8.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
9
5
Body
2
1
Leg
4
RangeRange
18Distance13
0Clinch0
0Ground2
Reyes
Novelli
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.6
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
0.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Reyes
Novelli
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
12
76
3 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
4
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/15 fights
Chin rating based on
2/14 fights
Reyes
Novelli
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
50
0
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Reyes
Novelli
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
0%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Reyes
Novelli
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
0.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
3.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
ReyesNovelli
Strike Zones
Reyes
Attacking
18 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedNovelli
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
18 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Reyes targets the head (67% of attacks) — Novelli absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Novelli targets the head (60% of attacks) — Reyes absorbs 60% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Reyes
RND
Novelli
0/0R00/0
Reyes · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.6WinLossTrend
Novelli · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.2WinLossTrend
Reyes · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Kyle NelsonRating 1.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Stephens · 2019-09
L · KO · R1
Drew DoberRating 2.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Dos Santos · 2019-06
L · KO · R2
Damir HadzovicRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Santos · 2019-02
W · KO · R1
Matt FrevolaRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. Choi · 2018-01
L · KO · R1
James VickRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos · 2017-05
Novelli · Last 2
L · Dec · R3
Marco Polo ReyesRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Ferguson · 2016-11
L · KO · R2
David TeymurRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Caceres · 2016-08