METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Ferguson
Mexico City, Mexico
5 Nov 2016
Lightweight
VS
89%
Reyes
11%
Novelli
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Marco Polo ReyeswinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Jason Novelli · UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Ferguson
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Reyes
→
Actual result
Reyes wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Reyes is a strong favourite at 89% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 15 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Reyes has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 49 points.
Risk flags
Reyes's chin rating of 12 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
ReyesNovelli
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Reyes
Novelli
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'0"
71"
Reach
41+
Age
47
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Reyes
Novelli
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.8
2.1
49.2
Performance Avg
0.0
49
Quality of Victory
0
50
Momentum Score
0
Reyes
Novelli
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
8.5
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
6.8
Style: Pressure
0.0
3.0
Style: Volume
0.0
3 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
9
5
Body
2
1
Leg
4
RangeRange
18Distance13
0Clinch0
0Ground2
Reyes
Novelli
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.6
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
0.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Reyes
Novelli
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
12
76
3 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
4
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/15 fights
Chin rating based on
2/14 fights
Reyes
Novelli
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
50
0
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Reyes
Novelli
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
0%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Reyes
Novelli
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
0.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
3.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
ReyesNovelli
Strike Zones
Reyes
Attacking
18 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedNovelli
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
18 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Reyes targets the head (67% of attacks) — Novelli absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Novelli targets the head (60% of attacks) — Reyes absorbs 60% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Reyes
RND
Novelli
0/0R00/0
Reyes · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Kyle NelsonKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Stephens · 2019-09
L · KO · R1
Drew DoberKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Dos Santos · 2019-06
L · KO · R2
Damir HadzovicKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Santos · 2019-02
W · KO · R1
Matt FrevolaKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. Choi · 2018-01
L · KO · R1
James VickKO/TKO
UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos · 2017-05
Novelli · Last 2
L · Dec · R3
Marco Polo ReyesDecision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Ferguson · 2016-11
L · KO · R2
David TeymurKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Caceres · 2016-08