UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena
Montreal, Canada
10 May 2025
Bantamweight
VS
43%
Katona
57%
Almakhan
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:04
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Almakhan
This is a genuine toss-up — Katona at 43% vs Almakhan at 57% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 14 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Almakhan has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 16 points.
Katona has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Katona
Almakhan
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'7"
64"
Reach
+68"
34
Age
+28
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Katona
Almakhan
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
42.2
56.5
44.0
Performance Avg
49.3
44
Quality of Victory
60
40
Momentum Score
43
Katona
Almakhan
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
0.5
51%
Strike Accuracy
35%
0.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
7
0
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance6
0Clinch0
0Ground2
Katona
Almakhan
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.4
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Katona
Almakhan
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
70
96
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/21 fights
Chin rating based on
4/15 fights
Katona
Almakhan
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
40
43
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Katona
Almakhan
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Katona
Almakhan
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
1.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
8.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.7
KatonaAlmakhan
Strike Zones
Katona
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedAlmakhan
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Katona targets the head (100% of attacks) — Almakhan absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Almakhan targets the head (88% of attacks) — Katona absorbs 88% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Katona
RND
Almakhan
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Katona · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Almakhan · QOF Timeline
Avg: 6.3WinLossTrend
Katona · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Bekzat AlmakhanRating 2.6KO/TKO
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L · Dec · R3
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Almakhan · Last 4
Upcoming
Jean MatsumotoUFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · 2026-06
L · Dec · R3
Aleksandre TopuriaRating 6.8Decision
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L · Dec · R3
Umar NurmagomedovRating 6.8Decision
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