UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama
Las Vegas, USA
1 Nov 2025
Middleweight
VS
72%
Johnson
28%
Dumas
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 1:25
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Johnson
Johnson is a strong favourite at 72% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 42 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Johnson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
Johnson has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Dumas has a chin rating of 20 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Johnson
Dumas
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+6'2"
74"
Reach
+79"
27+
Age
30
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Johnson
Dumas
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
69.5
27.6
62.3
Performance Avg
30.0
37
Quality of Victory
25
100
Momentum Score
35
Johnson
Dumas
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
0.7
44%
Strike Accuracy
32%
2.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.8
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
0
0
Body
2
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance2
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Johnson
Dumas
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
5.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
3.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Johnson
Dumas
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
100
20
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
3
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
2/8 fights
Chin rating based on
9/15 fights
Johnson
Dumas
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
35
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R2
Upcoming
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Johnson
Dumas
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Johnson
Dumas
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.8
5.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
3.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.1
6.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.8
JohnsonDumas
Strike Zones
Johnson
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedDumas
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Johnson targets the head (100% of attacks) — Dumas absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Dumas targets the body (100% of attacks) — Johnson absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Johnson
RND
Dumas
0/0R00/0
Johnson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Dumas · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.7WinLossTrend
Johnson · Last 2
W · Dec · R3
Cody BrundageRating 5Decision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Sub · R2
Sedriques DumasRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · 2025-11
Dumas · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Jackson McVeyRating 2.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
L · Sub · R2
Donte JohnsonRating 4.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · 2025-11
Upcoming
Zach ReeseUFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
L · KO · R1
Michal OleksiejczukRating 2.5KO/TKO
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · Dec · R3
Denis TiuliulinRating 4.6Decision
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