UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
New York City, USA
12 Nov 2016
Lightweight
VS
41%
Nurmagomedov
59%
Johnson
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 2:31
KN
Khabib Nurmagomedov
"The Eagle"
29 – 0
5'10"70" reachOrthodox37 yrs13-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 26
Michael
Michael Johnson
"The Menace"
25 – 20
Well-Rounded39 yrsSouthpaw73" reach5'10"
CFR 37

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Johnson

This is a genuine toss-up — Nurmagomedov at 41% vs Johnson at 59% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Johnson throws more volume but Nurmagomedov connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Johnson has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Nurmagomedov
Johnson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
5'10"
70"
Reach
+73"
37+
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Nurmagomedov
Johnson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
25.9
36.8
68.2
Performance Avg
42.5
47
Quality of Victory
38
100
Momentum Score
35
Nurmagomedov
Johnson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.4
50%
Strike Accuracy
39%
3.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.8
2 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
1
0
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance2
0Clinch0
11Ground0
Nurmagomedov
Johnson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
4.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.5
2.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Nurmagomedov
Johnson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
100
0
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
5
—
KO round context
Avg R2.3 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/29 fights
Chin rating based on
32/45 fights
Nurmagomedov
Johnson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
35
13-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R4
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Nurmagomedov
Johnson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
54%
38%
2
KO / TKO Wins
6
5
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
10

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Nurmagomedov
Johnson
Striking3.5 / 4.8Volume5.7 / 6.0Grappling4.2 / 1.5Wrestling2.9 / 1.1Submission3.9 / 0.0Pressure6.8 / 4.1
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.8
4.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.5
2.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
3.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.1
5.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.0
Nurmagomedov
Strike Zones
Johnson
Nurmagomedov
Attacking
12HEAD0BODY0LEGS12 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD1BODY0LEGS2 absorbed
Johnson
Attacking
1HEAD1BODY0LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
12HEAD0BODY0LEGS12 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Nurmagomedov targets the head (100% of attacks) — Johnson absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Johnson targets the head (50% of attacks) — Nurmagomedov absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Nurmagomedov
RND
Johnson
0/0R00/0

Nurmagomedov · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.5W4.5W5.0W4.5W4.5W4.7W5.2W5.6W5.0W4.5W7.3W6.6W6.7W2012-012013-092017-122020-10
WinLossTrend

Johnson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0105.5L5.0W1.5L4.5W5.0W5.2W5.5L4.0L4.5W5.2W4.5W5.0W6.5L5.5L6.3W4.0L3.7L3.2L5.2W4.5W4.1L5.5L3.0L6.0L5.2W5.7L4.6W3.8L5.3W6.0W4.9W4.0L2010-122013-082017-072022-052026-03
WinLossTrend

Nurmagomedov · Last 5

W · Sub · R2
Justin GaethjeRating 6.7
Submission
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · 2020-10
W · Sub · R3
Dustin PoirierRating 6.6
Submission
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier · 2019-09
W · Sub · R4
Conor McGregorRating 7.3
Submission
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · 2018-10
W · Dec · R5
Al IaquintaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta · 2018-04
W · Dec · R3
Edson BarbozaRating 5
Decision
UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm · 2017-12

Johnson · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Drew DoberRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Daniel ZellhuberRating 4.9
Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
W · KO · R2
Ottman AzaitarRating 6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Darrius FlowersRating 5.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · 2024-02
L · KO · R2
Diego FerreiraRating 3.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · 2023-05

News & Media

Khabib Nurmagomedov · Michael Johnson
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