UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dollaway
Barueri, Brazil
20 Dec 2014
Featherweight
VS
16%
Niinimaki
84%
Moicano
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 3:30
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Moicano
Moicano is a strong favourite at 84% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 41 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Moicano has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.
Striking split: Moicano throws more volume but Niinimaki connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Niinimaki's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Moicano has a chin rating of 6 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Niinimaki
Moicano
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'11"
69"
Reach
+72"
43
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Niinimaki
Moicano
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
9.8
50.3
25.0
Performance Avg
51.7
25
Quality of Victory
43
33
Momentum Score
64
Niinimaki
Moicano
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
1.9
53%
Strike Accuracy
50%
0.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.1
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
17
3
Body
1
7
Leg
6
RangeRange
13Distance23
0Clinch0
0Ground1
Niinimaki
Moicano
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.0
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Niinimaki
Moicano
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
64
6
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
3
3
Sub Losses
2
—
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
10 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/30 fights
Chin rating based on
20/28 fights
Niinimaki
Moicano
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
33
64
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · R2
W · KO · R2
Niinimaki
Moicano
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
62%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
7
1
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Niinimaki
Moicano
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.1
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.0
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.5
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.4
0.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.3
8.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.8
NiinimakiMoicano
Strike Zones
Niinimaki
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
24 absorbedMoicano
Attacking
24 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Niinimaki targets the legs (54% of attacks) — Moicano absorbs 54% of strikes there
🎯Moicano targets the head (71% of attacks) — Niinimaki absorbs 71% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Niinimaki
RND
Moicano
0/0R00/0
Niinimaki · QOF Timeline
Avg: 2.9WinLossTrend
Moicano · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Niinimaki · Last 4
L · Sub · R2
Renato MoicanoRating 3.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dollaway · 2014-12
L · Sub · R1
Chas SkellyRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Dos Anjos · 2014-08
L · Sub · R1
Niklas BackstromRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousasi · 2014-05
W · Dec · R3
Rani YahyaRating 4.9Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rousey vs. Team Tate Finale · 2013-11
Moicano · Last 5
W · Sub · R2
Chris DuncanRating 6.4Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Beneil DariushRating 6.5Decision
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
L · Sub · R1
Islam MakhachevRating 3.5Submission
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · R2
Benoit Saint DenisRating 5.9UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · 2024-09
W · KO · R2
Jalin TurnerRating 6.5KO/TKO
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04