METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dollaway
Barueri, Brazil
20 Dec 2014
Featherweight
VS
16%
Niinimaki
84%
Moicano
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 3:30
★ Official Result
Renato MoicanowinsSubmissionR2 · 3:30
def. Tom Niinimaki · UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dollaway
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Moicano
→
Actual result
Moicano wins
Submission · R2
Pre-fight analysis
Moicano is a strong favourite at 84% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 41 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Moicano has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.
Risk flags
Niinimaki's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Moicano has a chin rating of 6 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
NiinimakiMoicano
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Niinimaki
Moicano
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'11"
69"
Reach
+72"
44
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Niinimaki
Moicano
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
9.8
50.3
25.0
Performance Avg
51.7
25
Quality of Victory
43
33
Momentum Score
64
Niinimaki
Moicano
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.5
/ 10
2.1
/ 10
0.8
Style: Pressure
6.3
8.5
Style: Volume
3.8
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
17
3
Body
1
7
Leg
6
RangeRange
13Distance23
0Clinch0
0Ground1
Niinimaki
Moicano
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.4
/ 10
5.0
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.5
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
5.4
0
Submission wins
7
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Niinimaki
Moicano
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
64
6
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
3
3
Sub Losses
2
—
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
11 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/30 fights
Chin rating based on
21/28 fights
Niinimaki
Moicano
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
33
64
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · R2
Niinimaki
Moicano
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
62%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
7
1
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Niinimaki
Moicano
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.1
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.0
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.5
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.4
0.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.3
8.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.8
NiinimakiMoicano
Strike Zones
Niinimaki
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
24 absorbedMoicano
Attacking
24 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Niinimaki targets the legs (54% of attacks) — Moicano absorbs 54% of strikes there
🎯Moicano targets the head (71% of attacks) — Niinimaki absorbs 71% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Niinimaki
RND
Moicano
0/0R00/0
Niinimaki · Last 4
L · Sub · R2
Renato MoicanoSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dollaway · 2014-12
L · Sub · R1
Chas SkellySubmission
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Dos Anjos · 2014-08
L · Sub · R1
Niklas BackstromSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousasi · 2014-05
W · Dec · R3
Rani YahyaDecision
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rousey vs. Team Tate Finale · 2013-11
Moicano · Last 5
Upcoming
Brian OrtegaUFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 · 2026-09
W · Sub · R2
Chris DuncanSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Beneil DariushDecision
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
L · Sub · R1
Islam MakhachevSubmission
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · R2
Benoit Saint DenisUFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · 2024-09