METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan
Las Vegas, USA
4 Apr 2026
Featherweight
VS
95%
McMillen
5%
Zecchini
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:57
★ Official Result
Tommy McMillenwinsKO/TKOR1 · 3:57
def. Manolo Zecchini · UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
McMillen
→
Actual result
McMillen wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
McMillen is a strong favourite at 95% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 78 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
McMillen has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 60 points.
McMillen has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Zecchini has a chin rating of 56 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
McMillenZecchini
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
McMillen
Zecchini
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'8"
74"+
Reach
68"
28+
Age
29
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
McMillen
Zecchini
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
82.8
4.5
76.0
Performance Avg
0.0
60
Quality of Victory
0
100
Momentum Score
0
McMillen
Zecchini
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
29.6
5.8
55%
Strike Accuracy
28%
10.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
51
Head
14
23
Body
6
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
62Distance19
9Clinch1
3Ground0
McMillen
Zecchini
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
🥊
Pure striking matchup
Neither fighter has significant grappling in their history
0
Submission wins
0
McMillen
Zecchini
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
100
56
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
1/10 fights
Chin rating based on
2/16 fights
McMillen
Zecchini
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
0
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
McMillen
Zecchini
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
McMillen
Zecchini
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
10.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
2.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
McMillenZecchini
Strike Zones
McMillen
Attacking
74 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedZecchini
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
74 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯McMillen targets the head (69% of attacks) — Zecchini absorbs 69% of strikes there
🎯Zecchini targets the head (70% of attacks) — McMillen absorbs 70% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
McMillen
RND
Zecchini
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Zecchini · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.3WinLossTrend
McMillen · Last 1
W · KO · R1
Manolo ZecchiniRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · 2026-04
Zecchini · Last 2
L · KO · R1
Tommy McMillenRating 3.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · 2026-04
L · KO · R1
Morgan CharriereRating 2.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac · 2023-09