UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
Salt Lake City, USA
29 Jul 2023
Lightweight
VS
48%
Poirier
52%
Gaethje
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 1:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Gaethje
This is a genuine toss-up — Poirier at 48% vs Gaethje at 52% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Gaethje has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
Gaethje has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Poirier's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Gaethje has a chin rating of 10 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Poirier
Gaethje
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'11"
72"+
Reach
70"
37
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Poirier
Gaethje
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
61.4
66.1
58.2
Performance Avg
63.6
50
Quality of Victory
62
100
Momentum Score
100
Poirier
Gaethje
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
2.1
54%
Strike Accuracy
62%
6.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.3
10 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
5
0
Body
2
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
0Distance7
0Clinch0
0Ground1
Poirier
Gaethje
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.2
/ 10
1.0
/ 10
1.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.7
1.8
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
4
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Poirier
Gaethje
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
10
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
3
4
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R4.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
32/40 fights
Chin rating based on
16/32 fights
Poirier
Gaethje
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R5
L · Sub · R5
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R5
W · KO · R2
Poirier
Gaethje
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
64%
60%
10
KO / TKO Wins
6
4
Submission Wins
0
8
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Poirier
Gaethje
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.3
2.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.0
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.7
1.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.2
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.5
PoirierGaethje
Strike Zones
Poirier
Attacking
0 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedGaethje
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
0 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Gaethje targets the head (63% of attacks) — Poirier absorbs 63% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Poirier
RND
Gaethje
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Poirier · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Gaethje · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Poirier · Last 5
L · Dec · R5
Max HollowayRating 6.6Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · Sub · R5
Islam MakhachevRating 6Submission
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
W · KO · R2
Benoit Saint DenisRating 6.9KO/TKO
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
L · KO · R2
Justin GaethjeRating 3.7KO/TKO
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
W · Sub · R3
Michael ChandlerRating 6.3Submission
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11
Gaethje · Last 5
Upcoming
Ilia TopuriaUFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
W · Dec · R5
Paddy PimblettRating 6.2Decision
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · Dec · R3
Rafael FizievRating 5.5Decision
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
L · KO · R5
Max HollowayRating 5.1KO/TKO
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
W · KO · R2
Dustin PoirierRating 6.4KO/TKO
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07