UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen
Newark, USA
27 Apr 2013
Light Heavyweight
VS
58%
Davis
42%
Magalhaes
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Davis
This is a genuine toss-up — Davis at 58% vs Magalhaes at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Magalhaes has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 16 points.
Davis has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Magalhaes has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Davis
Magalhaes
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
+6'3"
79"+
Reach
75"
41
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Davis
Magalhaes
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.8
13.8
50.2
Performance Avg
37.7
34
Quality of Victory
50
64
Momentum Score
13
Davis
Magalhaes
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
0.6
34%
Strike Accuracy
23%
1.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.4
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
20
Head
4
1
Body
1
0
Leg
3
RangeRange
21Distance8
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Davis
Magalhaes
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
4.3
/ 10
8.0
/ 10
3.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
5.6
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
10.0
3
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Davis
Magalhaes
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
94
52
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/21 fights
Chin rating based on
5/23 fights
Davis
Magalhaes
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
64
13
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Davis
Magalhaes
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
1
6
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Davis
Magalhaes
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.4
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
4.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.6
6.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.4
DavisMagalhaes
Strike Zones
Davis
Attacking
21 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedMagalhaes
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
21 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Davis targets the head (95% of attacks) — Magalhaes absorbs 95% of strikes there
🎯Magalhaes targets the head (50% of attacks) — Davis absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Davis
RND
Magalhaes
0/0R00/0
Davis · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Magalhaes · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.8WinLossTrend
Davis · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Ryan BaderRating 5.5Decision
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W · Dec · R3
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L · Dec · R3
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W · Dec · R3
Lyoto MachidaRating 4.5Decision
UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung · 2013-08
W · Dec · R3
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UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen · 2013-04
Magalhaes · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Anthony PeroshRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung · 2013-08
L · Dec · R3
Phil DavisRating 5.5Decision
UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen · 2013-04
W · Sub · R2
Igor PokrajacRating 5.2Submission
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L · Dec · R3
Eliot MarshallRating 5.5Decision
UFC 97: Redemption · 2009-04
L · KO · R1
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