UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane
Las Vegas, USA
4 Mar 2023
Middleweight
VS
56%
Marquez
44%
Barriault
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 4:12
Julian Marquez
"The Cuban Missile Crisis"
9 – 6
6'2"72" reachOrthodox36 yrs4-fight slideSubmission Hunter
CFR 46
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Marquez
This is a genuine toss-up — Marquez at 56% vs Barriault at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Marquez throws more volume but Barriault connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Marquez's chin rating of 10 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Barriault has a chin rating of 10 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Marquez
Barriault
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
6'1"
72"
Reach
+74"
36
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Marquez
Barriault
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.8
35.6
43.8
Performance Avg
41.9
48
Quality of Victory
45
46
Momentum Score
13
Marquez
Barriault
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
3.0
2.5
48%
Strike Accuracy
50%
0.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.8
0 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
27
Head
66
2
Body
11
5
Leg
0
RangeRange
22Distance29
12Clinch48
0Ground0
Marquez
Barriault
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
8.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.1
5.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Marquez
Barriault
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
10
10
4 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
4
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/15 fights
Chin rating based on
18/28 fights
Marquez
Barriault
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
46
13
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Marquez
Barriault
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
67%
0
KO / TKO Wins
3
3
Submission Wins
1
0
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Marquez
Barriault
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.8
8.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.1
5.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.5
10.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.7
8.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.8
0.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.4
MarquezBarriault
Strike Zones
Marquez
Attacking
34 landedAbsorbing
77 absorbedBarriault
Attacking
77 landedAbsorbing
34 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Marquez targets the head (79% of attacks) — Barriault absorbs 79% of strikes there
🎯Barriault targets the head (86% of attacks) — Marquez absorbs 86% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Marquez
RND
Barriault
0/0R00/0
Marquez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.0WinLossTrend
Barriault · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Marquez · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Cody BrundageRating 2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev · 2025-03
L · KO · R1
Zach ReeseRating 2.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov · 2024-06
L · KO · R2
Marc-Andre BarriaultRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · 2023-03
L · KO · R1
Gregory RodriguesRating 3.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emmett · 2022-06
W · Sub · R2
Sam AlveyRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Holland · 2021-04
Barriault · Last 5
Upcoming
Brad TavaresUFC Fight Night · 2026-07
L · Dec · R3
Michal OleksiejczukRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Shara MagomedovRating 7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder · 2025-07
W · KO · R1
Bruno SilvaRating 6.3KO/TKO
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05
L · KO · R1
Dustin StoltzfusRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · 2024-11