METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Nelson
Saitama, Japan
20 Sept 2014
Flyweight
VS
80%
Horiguchi
20%
Reyes
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:48
★ Official Result
Kyoji HoriguchiwinsKO/TKOR1 · 3:48
def. Jon Delos Reyes · UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Nelson
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Horiguchi
→
Actual result
Horiguchi wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Horiguchi is a strong favourite at 80% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 46 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Reyes has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.
Risk flags
Horiguchi's chin rating of 66 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Reyes has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
HoriguchiReyes
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Horiguchi
Reyes
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"
Height
+5'6"
63"
Reach
+67"
35+
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Horiguchi
Reyes
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
60.6
14.9
53.7
Performance Avg
39.7
35
Quality of Victory
50
100
Momentum Score
22
Horiguchi
Reyes
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.9
/ 10
0.5
/ 10
4.8
Style: Pressure
7.8
7.0
Style: Volume
0.5
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
22
Head
4
9
Body
4
0
Leg
5
RangeRange
11Distance6
11Clinch7
9Ground0
Horiguchi
Reyes
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.5
/ 10
8.0
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
5.6
1.1
Submission Style (/10)
10.0
1
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Horiguchi
Reyes
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
66
54
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
2
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/41 fights
Chin rating based on
4/13 fights
Horiguchi
Reyes
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
22
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
Horiguchi
Reyes
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
100%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
1
6
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Horiguchi
Reyes
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
2.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
1.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
4.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
7.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
HoriguchiReyes
Strike Zones
Horiguchi
Attacking
31 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedReyes
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
31 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Horiguchi targets the head (71% of attacks) — Reyes absorbs 71% of strikes there
🎯Reyes targets the legs (38% of attacks) — Horiguchi absorbs 38% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Horiguchi
RND
Reyes
0/0R00/0
Horiguchi · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Manel KapeKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06
W · Dec · R3
Amir AlbaziDecision
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02
W · Sub · R3
Tagir UlanbekovSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Ali BagautinovDecision
UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Hall 2 · 2016-11
W · Dec · R3
Neil SeeryDecision
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arlovski · 2016-05
Reyes · Last 4
L · Sub · R2
Neil SeerySubmission
UFC Fight Night: Holohan vs Smolka · 2015-10
W · Sub · R2
Roldan Sangcha'anSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Faber · 2015-05
L · KO · R1
Kyoji HoriguchiKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Nelson · 2014-09
L · Sub · R1
Dustin KimuraSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Saffiedine vs Lim · 2014-01