UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Nelson
Saitama, Japan
20 Sept 2014
Flyweight
VS
81%
Horiguchi
19%
Reyes
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:48
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Horiguchi
Horiguchi is a strong favourite at 81% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 49 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Reyes has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.
Striking split: Reyes throws more volume but Horiguchi connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Reyes has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Horiguchi
Reyes
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"
Height
+5'6"
63"
Reach
+67"
35+
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Horiguchi
Reyes
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
64.0
14.9
56.7
Performance Avg
39.7
34
Quality of Victory
50
100
Momentum Score
22
Horiguchi
Reyes
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
2.6
49%
Strike Accuracy
44%
4.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
22
Head
4
9
Body
4
0
Leg
5
RangeRange
11Distance6
11Clinch7
9Ground0
Horiguchi
Reyes
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.8
2.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
8.0
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
5.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Horiguchi
Reyes
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
88
54
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
2
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/41 fights
Chin rating based on
4/13 fights
Horiguchi
Reyes
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
22
5-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
Horiguchi
Reyes
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
100%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
1
6
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Horiguchi
Reyes
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
2.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
1.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
7.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
HoriguchiReyes
Strike Zones
Horiguchi
Attacking
31 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedReyes
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
31 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Horiguchi targets the head (71% of attacks) — Reyes absorbs 71% of strikes there
🎯Reyes targets the legs (38% of attacks) — Horiguchi absorbs 38% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Horiguchi
RND
Reyes
0/0R00/0
Horiguchi · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Reyes · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.1WinLossTrend
Horiguchi · Last 5
Upcoming
Manel KapeUFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06
W · Dec · R3
Amir AlbaziRating 5.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02
W · Sub · R3
Tagir UlanbekovRating 6.6Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Ali BagautinovRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Hall 2 · 2016-11
W · Dec · R3
Neil SeeryRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arlovski · 2016-05
Reyes · Last 4
L · Sub · R2
Neil SeeryRating 2.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Holohan vs Smolka · 2015-10
W · Sub · R2
Roldan Sangcha'anRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Faber · 2015-05
L · KO · R1
Kyoji HoriguchiRating 3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Nelson · 2014-09
L · Sub · R1
Dustin KimuraRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Saffiedine vs Lim · 2014-01