UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates
Kansas City, USA
26 Apr 2025
Bantamweight
VS
54%
Wellmaker
46%
Saaiman
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:59
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Wellmaker
This is a genuine toss-up — Wellmaker at 54% vs Saaiman at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Wellmaker has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.
Striking split: Saaiman throws more volume but Wellmaker connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Saaiman has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Wellmaker
Saaiman
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'8"
71"+
Reach
67"
31
Age
+25
Switch
Stance
Southpaw
Wellmaker
Saaiman
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
63.7
54.3
56.0
Performance Avg
47.0
60
Quality of Victory
45
65
Momentum Score
75
Wellmaker
Saaiman
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.1
2.5
52%
Strike Accuracy
51%
10.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.7
2 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
1
4
Body
1
1
Leg
7
RangeRange
6Distance9
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Wellmaker
Saaiman
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.8
0.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Wellmaker
Saaiman
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
86
54
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/12 fights
Chin rating based on
6/12 fights
Wellmaker
Saaiman
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
65
75
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Wellmaker
Saaiman
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
67%
2
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Wellmaker
Saaiman
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.7
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.8
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.2
1.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.7
WellmakerSaaiman
Strike Zones
Wellmaker
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedSaaiman
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Wellmaker targets the body (67% of attacks) — Saaiman absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Saaiman targets the legs (78% of attacks) — Wellmaker absorbs 78% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Wellmaker
RND
Saaiman
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Wellmaker · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.8WinLossTrend
Saaiman · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Wellmaker · Last 4
L · Sub · R2
Juan DiazRating 4.9Submission
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Saaiman · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Malcolm WellmakerRating 2.9KO/TKO
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Payton TalbottRating 4.3KO/TKO
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