UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Topuria
Jacksonville, USA
24 Jun 2023
Flyweight
VS
33%
Zhumagulov
67%
Van
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Van
Van holds a meaningful edge at 67% per the CFR ratings — but Zhumagulov has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 35 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Zhumagulov has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.
Van has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Zhumagulov's chin rating of 68 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Zhumagulov
Van
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"
Height
+5'5"
66"+
Reach
65"
37
Age
+24
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Zhumagulov
Van
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
33.0
67.8
38.1
Performance Avg
62.6
54
Quality of Victory
44
26
Momentum Score
100
Zhumagulov
Van
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.0
3.0
37%
Strike Accuracy
59%
0.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.8
0 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
31
11
Body
8
16
Leg
5
RangeRange
38Distance43
1Clinch1
0Ground0
Zhumagulov
Van
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
8.0
/ 10
1.4
/ 10
5.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.0
10.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Zhumagulov
Van
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
68
78
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
7 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/23 fights
Chin rating based on
11/19 fights
Zhumagulov
Van
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
26
100
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
7-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
W · KO · R5
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Zhumagulov
Van
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
40%
0
KO / TKO Wins
4
1
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Zhumagulov
Van
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.8
8.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.4
5.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.0
10.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
0.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.6
ZhumagulovVan
Strike Zones
Zhumagulov
Attacking
39 landedAbsorbing
44 absorbedVan
Attacking
44 landedAbsorbing
39 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Zhumagulov targets the legs (41% of attacks) — Van absorbs 41% of strikes there
🎯Van targets the head (70% of attacks) — Zhumagulov absorbs 70% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Zhumagulov
RND
Van
0/0R00/0
Zhumagulov · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.7WinLossTrend
Van · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Zhumagulov · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Joshua VanRating 7.1Decision
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