METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Philippou
Duluth, USA
15 Jan 2014
Flyweight
VS
24%
Ozkilic
76%
Smolka
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
AO
CFR 8
★ Official Result
Louis SmolkawinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Alptekin Ozkilic · UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Philippou
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Smolka
→
Actual result
Smolka wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Smolka is a strong favourite at 76% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 18 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Smolka has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 21 points.
Risk flags
Ozkilic's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Smolka has a chin rating of 12 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
OzkilicSmolka
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Ozkilic
Smolka
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"
Height
+5'9"
65"
Reach
+68"
40
Age
+35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Ozkilic
Smolka
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
8.4
26.6
25.0
Performance Avg
46.5
25
Quality of Victory
46
17
Momentum Score
60
Ozkilic
Smolka
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.5
/ 10
5.9
/ 10
0.8
Style: Pressure
6.7
8.5
Style: Volume
2.9
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
4 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
51
0
Body
1
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
10Distance31
2Clinch6
0Ground17
Ozkilic
Smolka
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.4
/ 10
2.6
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.8
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
2.5
0
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Ozkilic
Smolka
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
12
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
3
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/14 fights
Chin rating based on
17/26 fights
Ozkilic
Smolka
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
17
60
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
Ozkilic
Smolka
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
75%
0
KO / TKO Wins
4
0
Submission Wins
2
1
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Ozkilic
Smolka
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.9
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.6
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
0.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.7
8.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.9
OzkilicSmolka
Strike Zones
Ozkilic
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
54 absorbedSmolka
Attacking
54 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Ozkilic targets the head (92% of attacks) — Smolka absorbs 92% of strikes there
🎯Smolka targets the head (94% of attacks) — Ozkilic absorbs 94% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Ozkilic
RND
Smolka
0/0R00/0
Ozkilic · Last 4
L · KO · R1
Ben NguyenKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Hunt · 2015-05
L · KO · R3
John LinekerKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Miller · 2014-07
L · Dec · R3
Louis SmolkaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Philippou · 2014-01
W · Dec · R3
Darren UyenoyamaDecision
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavidez 2 · 2013-12
Smolka · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Davey GrantKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Rakic · 2022-05
L · KO · R1
Vince MoralesKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo · 2021-12
W · KO · R2
Jose QuinonezKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Vettori · 2020-12
L · Sub · R1
Casey KenneySubmission
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Burns · 2020-05
W · KO · R1
Ryan MacDonaldKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje · 2019-09