METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Philippou
Duluth, USA
15 Jan 2014
Flyweight
VS
24%
Ozkilic
76%
Smolka
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
AO
CFR 8
★ Official Result
Louis SmolkawinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Alptekin Ozkilic · UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Philippou
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Smolka
→
Actual result
Smolka wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Smolka is a strong favourite at 76% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 18 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Smolka has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 21 points.
Smolka has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Ozkilic's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Smolka has a chin rating of 12 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
OzkilicSmolka
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Ozkilic
Smolka
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"
Height
+5'9"
65"
Reach
+68"
40
Age
+35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Ozkilic
Smolka
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
8.4
26.6
25.0
Performance Avg
46.5
25
Quality of Victory
46
17
Momentum Score
60
Ozkilic
Smolka
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.8
2.2
31%
Strike Accuracy
51%
0.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.9
0 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
51
0
Body
1
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
10Distance31
2Clinch6
0Ground17
Ozkilic
Smolka
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.5
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.6
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Ozkilic
Smolka
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
12
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
3
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/14 fights
Chin rating based on
17/26 fights
Ozkilic
Smolka
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
17
60
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
Ozkilic
Smolka
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
75%
0
KO / TKO Wins
4
0
Submission Wins
2
1
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Ozkilic
Smolka
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.9
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.6
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
0.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.7
8.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.9
OzkilicSmolka
Strike Zones
Ozkilic
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
54 absorbedSmolka
Attacking
54 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Ozkilic targets the head (92% of attacks) — Smolka absorbs 92% of strikes there
🎯Smolka targets the head (94% of attacks) — Ozkilic absorbs 94% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Ozkilic
RND
Smolka
0/0R00/0
Ozkilic · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.9WinLossTrend
Smolka · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Ozkilic · Last 4
L · KO · R1
Ben NguyenRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Hunt · 2015-05
L · KO · R3
John LinekerRating 4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Miller · 2014-07
L · Dec · R3
Louis SmolkaRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Philippou · 2014-01
W · Dec · R3
Darren UyenoyamaRating 4.5Decision
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavidez 2 · 2013-12
Smolka · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Davey GrantRating 4.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Rakic · 2022-05
L · KO · R1
Vince MoralesRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo · 2021-12
W · KO · R2
Jose QuinonezRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Vettori · 2020-12
L · Sub · R1
Casey KenneyRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Burns · 2020-05
W · KO · R1
Ryan MacDonaldRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje · 2019-09