UFC 149: Faber vs Barao
Calgary, Canada
21 Jul 2012
Welterweight
VS
53%
Ebersole
47%
Head
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
BE
Brian Ebersole
"Bad Boy"
51 – 18
6'0"73" reachSouthpaw45 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 17
JH
James Head
9 – 4
Well-Rounded2-fight slide42 yrsOrthodox73" reach6'1"
CFR 15

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Ebersole

This is a genuine toss-up — Ebersole at 53% vs Head at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Head throws more volume but Ebersole connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Head has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Ebersole
Head
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'1"
73"
Reach
73"
45
Age
+42
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Ebersole
Head
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.4
15.3
44.2
Performance Avg
39.7
32
Quality of Victory
40
75
Momentum Score
51
Ebersole
Head
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.3
50%
Strike Accuracy
46%
3.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.8
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
7
4
Body
2
4
Leg
0
RangeRange
11Distance6
0Clinch3
0Ground0
Ebersole
Head
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.2
1.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Ebersole
Head
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
74
54
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/69 fights
Chin rating based on
5/13 fights
Ebersole
Head
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
75
51
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R3
Ebersole
Head
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
20%
50%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
1
4
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Ebersole
Head
Striking3.3 / 0.8Volume7.7 / 4.8Grappling1.9 / 5.2Wrestling1.3 / 3.6Submission0.0 / 5.0Pressure3.3 / 4.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.8
1.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.2
1.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
3.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.7
7.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
Ebersole
Strike Zones
Head
Ebersole
Attacking
3HEAD4BODY4LEGS11 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD2BODY0LEGS9 absorbed
Head
Attacking
7HEAD2BODY0LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD4BODY4LEGS11 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Ebersole targets the body (36% of attacks) — Head absorbs 36% of strikes there
🎯Head targets the head (78% of attacks) — Ebersole absorbs 78% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Ebersole
RND
Head
0/0R00/0

Ebersole · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0104.5W5.0W4.5W4.5W5.5L5.5L4.5W1.5L2011-022011-122012-072014-092015-06
WinLossTrend

Head · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.3
0104.0L5.0W4.5W1.5L1.5L2011-062012-042012-072012-122013-08
WinLossTrend

Ebersole · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Omari AkhmedovRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Henderson · 2015-06
W · Dec · R3
John HowardRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso · 2014-09
L · Dec · R3
Rick StoryRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks · 2013-11
L · Dec · R3
James HeadRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 149: Faber vs Barao · 2012-07
W · Dec · R3
TJ WaldburgerRating 4.5
Decision
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida · 2012-06

Head · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Jason HighRating 1.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kampmann 2 · 2013-08
L · KO · R1
Mike PyleRating 1.5
KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale · 2012-12
W · Dec · R3
Brian EbersoleRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 149: Faber vs Barao · 2012-07
W · Sub · R1
Papy AbediRating 5
Submission
UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs Silva · 2012-04
L · Sub · R3
Nick RingRating 4
Submission
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin · 2011-06

News & Media

Brian Ebersole · James Head
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