UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johnson
Stockholm, Sweden
24 Jan 2015
Light Heavyweight
VS
48%
Davis
52%
Bader
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
PD
Phil Davis
"Mr. Wonderful"
17 – 4
6'2"79" reachOrthodox41 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 19
RB
Ryan Bader
"Darth"
23 – 5
Well-Rounded2-fight win streak42 yrsOrthodox74" reach6'2"
CFR 20

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Bader

This is a genuine toss-up — Davis at 48% vs Bader at 52% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Bader has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Bader has a chin rating of 10 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Davis
Bader
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
6'2"
79"+
Reach
74"
41+
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Davis
Bader
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.8
20.1
50.2
Performance Avg
54.2
34
Quality of Victory
40
64
Momentum Score
100
Davis
Bader
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
1.1
34%
Strike Accuracy
45%
1.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.8
0 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
12
7
Body
3
7
Leg
0
RangeRange
17Distance14
2Clinch0
0Ground1
Davis
Bader
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
4.3
/ 10
2.0
/ 10
3.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.4
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.7
3
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Davis
Bader
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
94
10
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
2
—
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/21 fights
Chin rating based on
20/28 fights
Davis
Bader
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
64
100
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Davis
Bader
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
40%
0
KO / TKO Wins
5
3
Submission Wins
1
6
Decision Wins
9

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Davis
Bader
Striking1.5 / 4.8Volume6.8 / 6.3Grappling4.3 / 2.0Wrestling3.0 / 1.4Submission3.3 / 0.7Pressure4.6 / 5.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.8
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.0
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.4
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.7
4.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
6.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.3
Davis
Strike Zones
Bader
Davis
Attacking
5HEAD7BODY7LEGS19 landed
Absorbing
12HEAD3BODY0LEGS15 absorbed
Bader
Attacking
12HEAD3BODY0LEGS15 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD7BODY7LEGS19 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Davis targets the body (37% of attacks) — Bader absorbs 37% of strikes there
🎯Bader targets the head (80% of attacks) — Davis absorbs 80% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Davis
RND
Bader
0/0R00/0

Davis · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0104.5W5.0W4.5W5.2W4.5W5.5L5.2W4.5W4.5W5.5L4.9W5.5L2010-022010-112012-102014-042015-01
WinLossTrend

Bader · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.2
0105.0W4.5W4.5W5.5W4.5W4.5L1.5L5.0W4.5W2.8L5.0W1.9L4.5W4.5W5.1W4.5W4.5W1.5L5.2W5.2W2008-122011-022013-012015-012016-11
WinLossTrend

Davis · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Ryan BaderRating 5.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johnson · 2015-01
W · Dec · R3
Glover TeixeiraRating 4.9
Decision
UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2 · 2014-10
L · Dec · R3
Anthony JohnsonRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira · 2014-04
W · Dec · R3
Lyoto MachidaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung · 2013-08
W · Dec · R3
Vinny MagalhaesRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen · 2013-04

Bader · Last 5

W · KO · R3
Rogerio NogueiraRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira · 2016-11
W · KO · R2
Ilir LatifiRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. Barnett · 2016-09
L · KO · R1
Anthony JohnsonRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · 2016-01
W · Dec · R3
Rashad EvansRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson · 2015-10
W · Dec · R3
Phil DavisRating 4.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johnson · 2015-01

News & Media

Phil Davis · Ryan Bader
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