UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis
Las Vegas, USA
20 Feb 2021
Heavyweight
VS
84%
Spivac
16%
Vanderaa
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 4:32
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Spivac
Spivac is a strong favourite at 84% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 37 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Spivac has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 22 points.
Striking split: Vanderaa throws more volume but Spivac connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Spivac's chin rating of 8 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Vanderaa has a chin rating of 18 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Spivac
Vanderaa
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
+6'4"
78"
Reach
+80"
31+
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Spivac
Vanderaa
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.1
8.4
52.0
Performance Avg
20.7
47
Quality of Victory
25
33
Momentum Score
0
Spivac
Vanderaa
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.8
2.0
50%
Strike Accuracy
45%
4.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.3
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
36
Head
3
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance3
0Clinch0
34Ground0
Spivac
Vanderaa
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
2.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Spivac
Vanderaa
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
8
18
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
4
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.3 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/24 fights
Chin rating based on
7/22 fights
Spivac
Vanderaa
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
33
0
Current form
5-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Spivac
Vanderaa
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
0%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Spivac
Vanderaa
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.3
3.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
2.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.4
3.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.3
SpivacVanderaa
Strike Zones
Spivac
Attacking
36 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedVanderaa
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
36 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Spivac targets the head (100% of attacks) — Vanderaa absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Vanderaa targets the head (100% of attacks) — Spivac absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Spivac
RND
Vanderaa
0/0R00/0
Spivac · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Vanderaa · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Spivac · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Ante DelijaRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Waldo Cortes AcostaRating 7Decision
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
L · KO · R1
Jailton AlmeidaRating 3.3KO/TKO
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · Sub · R1
Marcin TyburaRating 5.4Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · 2024-08
L · KO · R2
Ciryl GaneRating 3.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac · 2023-09
Vanderaa · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Waldo Cortes AcostaRating 7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen · 2022-10
L · KO · R3
Chase ShermanRating 4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Fiziev · 2022-07
L · Sub · R1
Aleksei OleinikRating 1.5Submission
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · 2022-04
L · Dec · R3
Andrei ArlovskiRating 6.2Decision
UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 · 2022-02
L · KO · R2
Alexandr RomanovRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez · 2021-10