Robbie Lawler vs Jake Ellenberger — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw

Las Vegas, USA

24 May 2014

Welterweight

72%

Lawler

28%

Ellenberger

Win Probability

KO/TKO

Round 3 · 3:06

Robbie Lawler

"Ruthless"

30 – 16

5'11"74" reachSouthpaw44 yrsStriker

CFR 41

Jake Ellenberger

"The Juggernaut"

31 – 15

Well-Rounded4-fight slide41 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'9"

CFR 16

★ Official Result

Robbie LawlerwinsKO/TKOR3 · 3:06

def. Jake Ellenberger · UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Lawler

→

Actual result

Lawler wins

KO/TKO · R3

Pre-fight analysis

Lawler is a strong favourite at 72% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 25 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Risk flags

Lawler's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Ellenberger has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

LawlerEllenberger

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Lawler

Ellenberger

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

5'11"+

Height

5'9"

74"+

Reach

71"

Age

+41

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

Lawler

Ellenberger

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

40.7

15.7

51.0

Performance Avg

45.7

Quality of Victory

Momentum Score

Lawler

Ellenberger

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

6.5

/ 10

6.0

/ 10

5.5

Style: Pressure

5.6

4.9

Style: Volume

3.4

8 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

5 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

15Distance5

4Clinch1

4Ground0

Lawler

Ellenberger

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

1.1

/ 10

1.5

/ 10

0.8

Wrestling Style (/10)

1.1

0.0

Submission Style (/10)

1.0

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Lawler

Ellenberger

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

KO risk

Verdict

4 consec. KOs

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R1.7 stoppage

KO round context

Avg R1.6 stoppage

1 fight ago

Last KO loss

Most recent fight

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

25/46 fights

Chin rating based on

21/46 fights

Lawler

Ellenberger

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

Current form

4-fight 📉 slide

W · KO · R1

L · KO · R2

W · KO · R3

L · Dec · R3

L · Dec · R5

Last 5

L · KO · R1

L · KO · R2

L · KO · R1

W · KO · R1

Lawler

Ellenberger

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

53%

60%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Lawler

Ellenberger

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

6.5

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

6.0

1.1

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

1.5

0.8

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

1.1

0.0

Submission

Submission attack frequency

1.0

5.5

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

5.6

4.9

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

3.4

Lawler

Strike Zones

Ellenberger

Lawler

Attacking

23 landed

Absorbing

6 absorbed

Ellenberger

Attacking

6 landed

Absorbing

23 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Lawler targets the head (96% of attacks) — Ellenberger absorbs 96% of strikes there

🎯Ellenberger targets the head (67% of attacks) — Lawler absorbs 67% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Lawler

RND

Ellenberger

0/0R00/0

0/0R10/0

Lawler · Last 5

W · KO · R1

Niko Price

KO/TKO

UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · 2023-07

L · KO · R2

Bryan Barberena

KO/TKO

UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · 2022-07

W · KO · R3

Nick Diaz

KO/TKO

UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · 2021-09

L · Dec · R3

Neil Magny

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic · 2020-08

L · Dec · R5

Colby Covington

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Lawler · 2019-08

Ellenberger · Last 5

L · KO · R1

Bryan Barberena

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick · 2018-08

L · KO · R1

Ben Saunders

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes · 2018-06

L · KO · R2

Mike Perry

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov · 2017-04

L · KO · R1

Jorge Masvidal

KO/TKO

The Ultimate Fighter: Tournament of Champions Finale · 2016-12

W · KO · R1

Matt Brown

KO/TKO

UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley · 2016-07

News & Media

Robbie Lawler · Jake Ellenberger

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