UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
Las Vegas, USA
24 May 2014
Welterweight
VS
72%
Lawler
28%
Ellenberger
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 3:06
RL
Robbie Lawler
"Ruthless"
30 – 16
5'11"74" reachSouthpaw44 yrsStriker
CFR 41
JE
Jake Ellenberger
"The Juggernaut"
31 – 15
Well-Rounded4-fight slide41 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'9"
CFR 16

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Lawler

Lawler is a strong favourite at 72% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 25 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Lawler has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Lawler's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Ellenberger has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Lawler
Ellenberger
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'9"
74"+
Reach
71"
44
Age
+41
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Lawler
Ellenberger
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
40.7
15.7
51.0
Performance Avg
45.7
45
Quality of Victory
45
90
Momentum Score
56
Lawler
Ellenberger
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.2
50%
Strike Accuracy
42%
6.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.0
8 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
22
Head
4
1
Body
2
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
15Distance5
4Clinch1
4Ground0
Lawler
Ellenberger
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
1.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.5
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Lawler
Ellenberger
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
KO risk
Verdict
4 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
7
3
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.6 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
25/46 fights
Chin rating based on
21/46 fights
Lawler
Ellenberger
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
90
56
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Lawler
Ellenberger
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
53%
60%
8
KO / TKO Wins
5
0
Submission Wins
1
7
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Lawler
Ellenberger
Striking6.5 / 6.0Volume4.9 / 3.4Grappling1.1 / 1.5Wrestling0.8 / 1.1Submission0.0 / 1.0Pressure5.5 / 5.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.0
1.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.5
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.0
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.6
4.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.4
Lawler
Strike Zones
Ellenberger
Lawler
Attacking
22HEAD1BODY0LEGS23 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD2BODY0LEGS6 absorbed
Ellenberger
Attacking
4HEAD2BODY0LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
22HEAD1BODY0LEGS23 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Lawler targets the head (96% of attacks) — Ellenberger absorbs 96% of strikes there
🎯Ellenberger targets the head (67% of attacks) — Lawler absorbs 67% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Lawler
RND
Ellenberger
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Lawler · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0104.5W5.2W5.0W2.8L4.5W2.8L1.5L5.0W5.2W4.5W5.5L5.5W4.9W4.5W5.5W4.5W1.5L4.5W5.7L1.5L6.8L6.1L5.2W3.2L5.7W2002-052013-022015-072020-082023-07
WinLossTrend

Ellenberger · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.0
0105.5L5.2W4.5W4.5W5.0W5.0W4.5W2.1L4.5W5.0W5.5L4.3L1.8L5.2W2.1L5.5L5.4W1.5L2.8L1.5L1.9L2009-092012-022014-112017-042018-08
WinLossTrend

Lawler · Last 5

W · KO · R1
Niko PriceRating 5.7
KO/TKO
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · 2023-07
L · KO · R2
Bryan BarberenaRating 3.2
KO/TKO
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · 2022-07
W · KO · R3
Nick DiazRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · 2021-09
L · Dec · R3
Neil MagnyRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic · 2020-08
L · Dec · R5
Colby CovingtonRating 6.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Lawler · 2019-08

Ellenberger · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Bryan BarberenaRating 1.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick · 2018-08
L · KO · R1
Ben SaundersRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes · 2018-06
L · KO · R2
Mike PerryRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov · 2017-04
L · KO · R1
Jorge MasvidalRating 1.5
KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournament of Champions Finale · 2016-12
W · KO · R1
Matt BrownRating 5.4
KO/TKO
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley · 2016-07

News & Media

Robbie Lawler · Jake Ellenberger
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