UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh
Mexico City, Mexico
28 Feb 2026
Women's Bantamweight
VS
47%
Perez
53%
Chiasson
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Ailin
Ailin Perez
"Fiona"
13 – 2
5'5"66" reachSwitch31 yrs6-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 55
Macy
Macy Chiasson
11 – 6
Well-Rounded3-fight slide34 yrsOrthodox72" reach5'11"
CFR 62

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Chiasson

This is a genuine toss-up — Perez at 47% vs Chiasson at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Chiasson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 20 points.

Perez has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Chiasson has a chin rating of 58 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Perez
Chiasson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"
Height
+5'11"
66"
Reach
+72"
31+
Age
34
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Perez
Chiasson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
54.8
61.5
52.2
Performance Avg
53.0
30
Quality of Victory
50
75
Momentum Score
96
Perez
Chiasson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.0
55%
Strike Accuracy
47%
1.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.6
0 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
0
2
Body
3
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance1
3Clinch2
4Ground0
Perez
Chiasson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
3.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.9
2.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Perez
Chiasson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
88
58
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/15 fights
Chin rating based on
14/17 fights
Perez
Chiasson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
75
96
6-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · R2
W · Sub · R1
Perez
Chiasson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
17%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
1
Submission Wins
2
5
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Perez
Chiasson
Striking1.7 / 3.6Volume8.4 / 4.1Grappling3.3 / 2.9Wrestling2.3 / 2.0Submission1.7 / 2.5Pressure3.7 / 5.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.6
3.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.9
2.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
3.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.2
8.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.1
Perez
Strike Zones
Chiasson
Perez
Attacking
6HEAD2BODY0LEGS8 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD3BODY0LEGS3 absorbed
Chiasson
Attacking
0HEAD3BODY0LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD2BODY0LEGS8 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Perez targets the head (75% of attacks) — Chiasson absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Chiasson targets the body (100% of attacks) — Perez absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Perez
RND
Chiasson
0/0R00/0

Perez · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0103.7L4.5W4.5W5.9W5.3W5.2W5.8W2022-092023-112024-092026-02
WinLossTrend

Chiasson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0105.2W5.0W5.2W5.5L4.5W4.5W3.3L5.0W4.8L5.0W4.9W5.9L5.6L6.5L2018-112020-022022-092025-102026-02
WinLossTrend

Perez · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Macy ChiassonRating 5.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02
W · Dec · R3
Karol RosaRating 5.2
Decision
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · Sub · R1
Daria ZhelezniakovaRating 5.3
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · 2024-09
W · Dec · R3
Joselyne EdwardsRating 5.9
Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
W · Dec · R3
Lucie PudilovaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · 2023-11

Chiasson · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Ailin PerezRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Yana SantosRating 5.6
Decision
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · 2025-10
L · Dec · R3
Ketlen VieiraRating 5.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber · 2025-05
W · R2
Mayra Bueno SilvaRating 4.9
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
W · Sub · R1
Pannie KianzadRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura · 2024-03

News & Media

Ailin Perez · Macy Chiasson
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