UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2
Calgary, Canada
28 Jul 2018
Women's Flyweight
VS
34%
Davis
66%
Cerminara
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Cerminara
Cerminara holds a meaningful edge at 66% per the CFR ratings — but Davis has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 20 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Cerminara throws more volume but Davis connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Davis's chin rating of 58 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Cerminara has a chin rating of 48 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Davis
Cerminara
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'9"
68"
Reach
68"
41
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Davis
Cerminara
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
21.5
41.2
39.7
Performance Avg
40.9
28
Quality of Victory
25
45
Momentum Score
85
Davis
Cerminara
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.8
47%
Strike Accuracy
35%
1.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.3
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
19
1
Body
2
8
Leg
0
RangeRange
19Distance20
0Clinch1
0Ground0
Davis
Cerminara
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
2.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Davis
Cerminara
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
58
48
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
10 fights ago
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/32 fights
Chin rating based on
17/24 fights
Davis
Cerminara
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
45
85
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Davis
Cerminara
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
13%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
7
Decision Wins
11
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Davis
Cerminara
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.3
3.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
2.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
1.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
2.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.9
8.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
9.3
DavisCerminara
Strike Zones
Davis
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
21 absorbedCerminara
Attacking
21 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Davis targets the head (53% of attacks) — Cerminara absorbs 53% of strikes there
🎯Cerminara targets the head (90% of attacks) — Davis absorbs 90% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Davis
RND
Cerminara
0/0R00/0
Davis · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Cerminara · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Davis · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Julija StoliarenkoRating 4.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland · 2022-02
L · Dec · R3
Pannie KianzadRating 5.5Decision
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · 2021-06
W · Dec · R3
Sabina MazoRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gane · 2021-02
L · Dec · R3
Viviane AraujoRating 6.2Decision
UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar · 2019-07
L · Dec · R3
Jennifer MaiaRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis · 2019-03
Cerminara · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Maycee BarberRating 6.5Decision
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
L · Dec · R3
Manon FiorotRating 7.1Decision
UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev · 2022-10
W · Dec · R3
Amanda RibasRating 4.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Rakic · 2022-05
W · Dec · R3
Jennifer MaiaRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chikadze · 2022-01
W · Dec · R3
Viviane AraujoRating 5.2Decision
UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler · 2021-05