UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson
Houston, USA
3 Oct 2015
Flyweight
VS
51%
Benavidez
49%
Bagautinov
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
JB
Joseph Benavidez
28 – 8
5'4"65" reachSouthpaw41 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 16
AB
Ali Bagautinov
"Puncher"
15 – 6
Well-Rounded40 yrsOrthodox65" reach5'4"
CFR 16

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Benavidez

This is a genuine toss-up — Benavidez at 51% vs Bagautinov at 49% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Benavidez throws more volume but Bagautinov connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Benavidez's chin rating of 38 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Benavidez
Bagautinov
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"
Height
5'4"
65"
Reach
65"
41
Age
+40
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Benavidez
Bagautinov
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.0
15.5
51.4
Performance Avg
41.6
38
Quality of Victory
31
40
Momentum Score
45
Benavidez
Bagautinov
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
0.9
37%
Strike Accuracy
40%
4.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.6
5 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
14
Head
9
4
Body
3
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
16Distance12
3Clinch0
0Ground0
Benavidez
Bagautinov
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.8
1.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Benavidez
Bagautinov
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
38
94
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
21/36 fights
Chin rating based on
7/21 fights
Benavidez
Bagautinov
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
40
45
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
Benavidez
Bagautinov
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
25%
5
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
0
9
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Benavidez
Bagautinov
Striking4.8 / 3.6Volume6.2 / 7.1Grappling2.0 / 1.8Wrestling1.4 / 1.3Submission0.7 / 0.0Pressure4.9 / 3.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.6
2.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.8
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.3
0.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.5
6.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.1
Benavidez
Strike Zones
Bagautinov
Benavidez
Attacking
14HEAD4BODY1LEGS19 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD3BODY0LEGS12 absorbed
Bagautinov
Attacking
9HEAD3BODY0LEGS12 landed
Absorbing
14HEAD4BODY1LEGS19 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Benavidez targets the head (74% of attacks) — Bagautinov absorbs 74% of strikes there
🎯Bagautinov targets the head (75% of attacks) — Benavidez absorbs 75% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Benavidez
RND
Bagautinov
0/0R00/0

Benavidez · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0104.5W4.5W5.2W5.5L4.5W5.2W5.0W1.5L5.1W4.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W6.0W5.5L6.3W4.5W5.2W3.2L2.6L5.5L2011-032013-092016-022020-022021-03
WinLossTrend

Bagautinov · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.5W4.6W4.5W5.5L5.5L4.5W7.0L2013-092014-022015-102016-11
WinLossTrend

Benavidez · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Askar AskarovRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya · 2021-03
L · Sub · R1
Deiveson FigueiredoRating 2.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs. Benavidez 2 · 2020-07
L · KO · R2
Deiveson FigueiredoRating 3.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. Figueiredo · 2020-02
W · KO · R2
Jussier FormigaRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Dos Santos · 2019-06
W · Dec · R3
Dustin OrtizRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw · 2019-01

Bagautinov · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Kyoji HoriguchiRating 7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Hall 2 · 2016-11
W · Dec · R3
Geane HerreraRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Thompson · 2016-06
L · Dec · R3
Joseph BenavidezRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson · 2015-10
L · Dec · R5
Demetrious JohnsonRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov · 2014-06
W · Dec · R3
John LinekerRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2 · 2014-02

News & Media

Joseph Benavidez · Ali Bagautinov
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