Casey O'Neill vs Ariane da Silva — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington

Las Vegas, USA

16 Dec 2023

Women's Flyweight

64%

O'Neill

36%

Silva

Win Probability

Submission

Round 2 · 1:18

Casey O'Neill

"King"

11 – 2

5'6"69" reachOrthodox28 yrs2-fight win streakStriker

CFR 59

Ariane da Silva

"Queen of Violence"

17 – 11

Well-Rounded3-fight slide32 yrsOrthodox67" reach5'6"

CFR 34

★ Official Result

Ariane da SilvawinsSubmissionR2 · 1:18

def. Casey O'Neill · UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

O'Neill

→

Actual result

Silva wins

Submission · R2

Pre-fight analysis

O'Neill holds a meaningful edge at 64% per the CFR ratings — but Silva has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 25 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

O'Neill has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.

Risk flags

Silva has a chin rating of 14 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

O'NeillSilva

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

O'Neill

Silva

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

5'6"

Height

5'6"

69"+

Reach

67"

28+

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

O'Neill

Silva

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

58.5

33.5

56.5

Performance Avg

37.5

Quality of Victory

Momentum Score

O'Neill

Silva

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

6.5

/ 10

0.9

/ 10

6.9

Style: Pressure

3.6

4.2

Style: Volume

6.2

3 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

0 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

3Distance8

0Clinch0

0Ground17

O'Neill

Silva

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

2.1

/ 10

4.3

/ 10

1.5

Wrestling Style (/10)

3.0

1.7

Submission Style (/10)

3.3

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

O'Neill

Silva

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

Never stopped

Verdict

2 consec. KOs

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

—

KO round context

Avg R1.7 stoppage

—

Last KO loss

6 fights ago

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

9/13 fights

Chin rating based on

14/28 fights

O'Neill

Silva

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

2-fight 🔥 win streak

Current form

3-fight 📉 slide

Upcoming

W · KO · R1

W · Dec · R3

L · Sub · R2

L · Dec · R3

Last 5

L · Dec · R3

L · Sub · R3

L · Dec · R3

W · Sub · R2

W · Dec · R3

O'Neill

Silva

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

67%

33%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

O'Neill

Silva

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

6.5

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

0.9

2.1

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

4.3

1.5

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

3.0

1.7

Submission

Submission attack frequency

3.3

6.9

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

3.6

4.2

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

6.2

O'Neill

Strike Zones

Silva

O'Neill

Attacking

3 landed

Absorbing

25 absorbed

Silva

Attacking

25 landed

Absorbing

3 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯O'Neill targets the head (67% of attacks) — Silva absorbs 67% of strikes there

🎯Silva targets the head (96% of attacks) — O'Neill absorbs 96% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

O'Neill

RND

Silva

0/0R00/0

O'Neill · Last 5

Upcoming

Eduarda Moura

UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 · 2026-09

W · KO · R1

Gabriella Fernandes

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03

W · Dec · R3

Luana Santos

Decision

UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08

L · Sub · R2

Ariane da Silva

Submission

UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12

L · Dec · R3

Jennifer Maia

Decision

UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03

Silva · Last 5

L · Dec · R3

Wang Cong

Decision

UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06

L · Sub · R3

Jasmine Jasudavicius

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · 2024-11

L · Dec · R3

Karine Silva

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez · 2024-04

W · Sub · R2

Casey O'Neill

Submission

UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12

W · Dec · R3

Melissa Gatto

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov · 2023-07

News & Media

Casey O'Neill · Ariane da Silva

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