UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
Las Vegas, USA
16 Dec 2023
Women's Flyweight
VS
63%
O'Neill
37%
Silva
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 1:18
Casey
Casey O'Neill
"King"
11 – 2
5'6"69" reachOrthodox28 yrs2-fight win streakStriker
CFR 59
Ariane
Ariane da Silva
"Queen of Violence"
17 – 11
Well-Rounded3-fight slide32 yrsOrthodox67" reach5'6"
CFR 35

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: O'Neill

O'Neill holds a meaningful edge at 63% per the CFR ratings — but Silva has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 24 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

O'Neill has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Silva has a chin rating of 14 — a potential KO vulnerability.

O'Neill
Silva
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
5'6"
69"+
Reach
67"
28+
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
O'Neill
Silva
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
58.5
34.5
56.5
Performance Avg
39.0
44
Quality of Victory
36
58
Momentum Score
30
O'Neill
Silva
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
3.0
1.4
52%
Strike Accuracy
41%
6.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.9
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
24
0
Body
1
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance8
0Clinch0
0Ground17
O'Neill
Silva
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.3
1.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
O'Neill
Silva
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
86
14
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/13 fights
Chin rating based on
14/28 fights
O'Neill
Silva
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
58
30
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
O'Neill
Silva
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
33%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
2
2
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

O'Neill
Silva
Striking6.5 / 0.9Volume4.2 / 6.2Grappling2.1 / 4.3Wrestling1.5 / 3.0Submission1.7 / 3.3Pressure6.9 / 3.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.9
2.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.3
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
6.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.6
4.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.2
O'Neill
Strike Zones
Silva
O'Neill
Attacking
2HEAD0BODY1LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
24HEAD1BODY0LEGS25 absorbed
Silva
Attacking
24HEAD1BODY0LEGS25 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD0BODY1LEGS3 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯O'Neill targets the head (67% of attacks) — Silva absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Silva targets the head (96% of attacks) — O'Neill absorbs 96% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

O'Neill
RND
Silva
0/0R00/0

O'Neill · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.2W5.5W5.2W4.5W5.5L2.8L6.2W5.4W2021-022021-102023-032024-082026-03
WinLossTrend

Silva · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0105.7L6.2L4.5W5.6W2.8L3.8L4.5W2.5L5.1W5.4W6.4W6.7L4.9L6.8L2019-012020-112023-032024-112025-06
WinLossTrend

O'Neill · Last 5

W · KO · R1
Gabriella FernandesRating 5.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Luana SantosRating 6.2
Decision
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08
L · Sub · R2
Ariane da SilvaRating 2.8
Submission
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
L · Dec · R3
Jennifer MaiaRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03
W · Dec · R3
Roxanne ModafferiRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 · 2022-02

Silva · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Wang CongRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
L · Sub · R3
Jasmine JasudaviciusRating 4.9
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
Karine SilvaRating 6.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez · 2024-04
W · Sub · R2
Casey O'NeillRating 6.4
Submission
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
W · Dec · R3
Melissa GattoRating 5.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov · 2023-07

News & Media

Casey O'Neill · Ariane da Silva
← Back to fights