UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo
Des Moines, USA
3 May 2025
Heavyweight
VS
45%
Petersen
55%
Mayes
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Mayes
This is a genuine toss-up — Petersen at 45% vs Mayes at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 7 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Mayes has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.
Petersen has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Petersen's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Mayes has a chin rating of 56 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Petersen
Mayes
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'6"
74"
Reach
+81"
31+
Age
34
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Petersen
Mayes
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
34.1
41.2
35.0
Performance Avg
37.8
25
Quality of Victory
39
40
Momentum Score
43
Petersen
Mayes
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.0
66%
Strike Accuracy
46%
1.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.7
0 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
22
Head
0
0
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance1
0Clinch0
21Ground0
Petersen
Mayes
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.4
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Petersen
Mayes
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
56
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
3
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/15 fights
Chin rating based on
12/20 fights
Petersen
Mayes
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
40
43
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Petersen
Mayes
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Petersen
Mayes
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.7
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
1.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.6
9.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.7
PetersenMayes
Strike Zones
Petersen
Attacking
22 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedMayes
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
22 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Petersen targets the head (100% of attacks) — Mayes absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Mayes targets the body (100% of attacks) — Petersen absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Petersen
RND
Mayes
0/0R00/0
Petersen · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Mayes · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Petersen · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Guilherme PatRating 4.8Decision
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L · Dec · R3
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