METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim
Las Vegas, USA
6 Jun 2026
Bantamweight
VS
50%
Mitchell
50%
Luna
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 4:52
Bryce
Bryce Mitchell
"Thug Nasty"
184
5'10"70" reachSouthpaw31 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 57
Santiago
Santiago Luna
"BorderBoy"
80
Well-Rounded22 yrsOrthodox74" reach5'9"
CFR 58
★ Official Result
Bryce MitchellwinsSubmissionR3 · 4:52
def. Santiago Luna · UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Mitchell
Bryce Mitchell by split decision. Mitchell's UFC experience and submission threa
Actual result
Mitchell wins
Submission · R3
Pre-fight analysis

Victor Henry withdrew and sent in an undefeated 21-year-old Mexican wrestling champion instead — this might be worse news for Mitchell.

Bryce Mitchell was supposed to face Victor Henry in a relatively comfortable bantamweight booking. Henry is 25-7 and returning from a year-long layoff — manageable opposition for a man trying to rebuild his UFC standing after getting knocked out by Jean Silva. Then Henry withdrew, and in stepped Santiago Luna on nine days' notice. Luna is 8-0, 21 years old, has seven finishes, and is a three-time…

Mitchell intel

Mitchell prepared for Victor Henry and now receives a completely different challenge in an undefeated wrestler on short notice. His bantamweight transition has been smooth and his conditioning at 135 looks better than his featherweight days. No injury news.

Luna intel

Luna stepped in on nine days' notice and has publicly declared he is not impressed by Mitchell. The 21-year-old brings elite Greco-Roman credentials and a 7-finish record but has not faced anyone approaching Mitchell's experience level. His camp preparation will inevitably be incomplete.

Key angles

The Greco-Roman wrestling of Luna versus Mitchell's submission hunting creates a high-stakes grappling match

Short notice disadvantage — Luna's preparation for Mitchell's specific tendencies will be incomplete

Mitchell's experience at this level of competition against a prospect who has never faced it

Which fighter's grappling game establishes position first will likely determine the outcome

Luna's attitude heading in suggests he will engage rather than survive — making a boring decision unlikely

Risk flags

Luna's Greco-Roman pedigree may neutralise Mitchell's submission game entirely, taking away his biggest advantage

Short-notice opponents with nothing to lose historically fight loosely and dangerously — Luna's youth adds to the unpredictability

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
MitchellLuna
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
Strike Accuracy
Mitchell
Luna
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'9"
70"
Reach
+74"
31
Age
+22
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Mitchell
Luna
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
57.3
57.5
50.2
Performance Avg
52.2
32
Quality of Victory
43
100
Momentum Score
70
Mitchell
Luna
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.5
/ 10
6.3
/ 10
4.4
Style: Pressure
5.5
7.1
Style: Volume
5.3
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
0
0
Body
3
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance3
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Mitchell
Luna
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.3
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
2.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
2.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
2
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Mitchell
Luna
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
88
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
Strikes absorbed / min
13/22 fights
Chin rating based on
3/8 fights
Mitchell
Luna
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
70
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Mitchell
Luna
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
30%
50%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
2
Submission Wins
0
7
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Mitchell
Luna
Striking2.5 / 6.3Volume7.1 / 5.3Grappling3.3 / 1.2Wrestling2.3 / 0.8Submission2.0 / 0.0Pressure4.4 / 5.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.3
3.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
2.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
7.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.3
Mitchell
Strike Zones
Luna
Mitchell
Attacking
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD3BODY0LEGS3 absorbed
Luna
Attacking
0HEAD3BODY0LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Mitchell targets the head (100% of attacks) — Luna absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Luna targets the body (100% of attacks) — Mitchell absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Mitchell
RND
Luna
0/0R00/0

Mitchell · Last 5

W · Sub · R3
Santiago Luna
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
W · Dec · R3
Said Nurmagomedov
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder · 2025-07
L · Sub · R2
Jean Silva
Submission
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · KO · R3
Kron Gracie
KO/TKO
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · KO · R1
Josh Emmett
KO/TKO
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12

Luna · Last 3

L · Sub · R3
Bryce Mitchell
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
W · Dec · R3
Angel Pacheco
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02
W · KO · R1
Quang Le
KO/TKO
Noche UFC: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09

News & Media

Bryce Mitchell · Santiago Luna
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