★ Championship Bout · Welterweight
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3
London, United Kingdom
18 Mar 2023
Welterweight
VS
50%
Edwards
50%
Usman
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
Leon
Leon Edwards
"Rocky"
22 – 6
6'2"74" reachSouthpaw34 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 57
Kamaru
Kamaru Usman
"The Nigerian Nightmare"
21 – 4
Well-Rounded39 yrsSwitch76" reach6'0"
CFR 57

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Edwards

This is a genuine toss-up — Edwards at 50% vs Usman at 50% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Usman throws more volume but Edwards connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Edwards's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Edwards
Usman
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
6'0"
74"
Reach
+76"
34+
Age
39
Southpaw
Stance
Switch
Edwards
Usman
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
57.4
57.4
51.1
Performance Avg
61.2
36
Quality of Victory
46
95
Momentum Score
55
Edwards
Usman
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
1.1
56%
Strike Accuracy
54%
3.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.2
3 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
17
12
Body
3
7
Leg
0
RangeRange
20Distance13
8Clinch7
0Ground0
Edwards
Usman
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.1
1.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Edwards
Usman
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
74
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R5.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
20/28 fights
Chin rating based on
19/25 fights
Edwards
Usman
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
95
55
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R4
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R5
W · Dec · R5
Edwards
Usman
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
31%
3
KO / TKO Wins
4
1
Submission Wins
1
10
Decision Wins
11

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Edwards
Usman
Striking3.6 / 4.2Volume7.2 / 7.2Grappling2.3 / 2.1Wrestling1.6 / 1.5Submission0.7 / 0.6Pressure4.2 / 4.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.2
2.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.1
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.5
0.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.6
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.7
7.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.2
Edwards
Strike Zones
Usman
Edwards
Attacking
9HEAD12BODY7LEGS28 landed
Absorbing
17HEAD3BODY0LEGS20 absorbed
Usman
Attacking
17HEAD3BODY0LEGS20 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD12BODY7LEGS28 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Edwards targets the body (43% of attacks) — Usman absorbs 43% of strikes there
🎯Usman targets the head (85% of attacks) — Edwards absorbs 85% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Edwards
RND
Usman
0/0R00/0

Edwards · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.5L5.0W4.5W6.6L4.5W5.5W6.0W4.9W5.5W4.5W5.6W4.7W4.5W6.6W5.6W5.8W6.6L4.5L5.0L2014-112016-102019-032023-122025-11
WinLossTrend

Usman · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.2W5.6W4.5W4.7W5.6W5.0W4.5W4.5W4.7W4.5W6.8W4.5W5.5W5.1W5.8W5.1L6.6L7.4L5.7W2015-072017-092019-122022-082025-06
WinLossTrend

Edwards · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Carlos PratesRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
L · Sub · R4
Sean BradyRating 4.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
L · Dec · R5
Belal MuhammadRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
W · Dec · R5
Colby CovingtonRating 5.8
Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
W · Dec · R5
Kamaru UsmanRating 5.6
Decision
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03

Usman · Last 5

W · Dec · R5
Joaquin BuckleyRating 5.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
L · Dec · R3
Khamzat ChimaevRating 7.4
Decision
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10
L · Dec · R5
Leon EdwardsRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03
L · KO · R5
Leon EdwardsRating 5.1
KO/TKO
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards · 2022-08
W · Dec · R5
Colby CovingtonRating 5.8
Decision
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · 2021-11

News & Media

Leon Edwards · Kamaru Usman
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