UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
Las Vegas, USA
11 Jul 2015
Welterweight
VS
54%
Brown
46%
Means
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 4:44
MB
Matt Brown
"The Immortal"
26 – 19
6'0"75" reachOrthodox45 yrsKnockout Artist
CFR 43
Tim
Tim Means
"The Dirty Bird"
33 – 17
Well-Rounded2-fight slide42 yrsOrthodox75" reach6'2"
CFR 37

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Brown

This is a genuine toss-up — Brown at 54% vs Means at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Brown has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.

Striking split: Means throws more volume but Brown connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Brown's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Means has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Brown
Means
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'2"
75"
Reach
75"
45
Age
+42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Brown
Means
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
42.5
36.5
54.0
Performance Avg
45.2
52
Quality of Victory
41
78
Momentum Score
40
Brown
Means
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
2.1
60%
Strike Accuracy
51%
8.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.0
13 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
18
Head
13
6
Body
3
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
16Distance14
8Clinch2
1Ground0
Brown
Means
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
1.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.2
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Brown
Means
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
2
5
Sub Losses
6
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
30/45 fights
Chin rating based on
30/50 fights
Brown
Means
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
40
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
Brown
Means
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
88%
53%
13
KO / TKO Wins
6
2
Submission Wins
2
2
Decision Wins
7

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Brown
Means
Striking8.8 / 5.0Volume2.1 / 4.8Grappling1.2 / 2.2Wrestling0.8 / 1.5Submission1.2 / 1.3Pressure7.9 / 5.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.0
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.2
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.5
1.2
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.3
7.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.3
2.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
Brown
Strike Zones
Means
Brown
Attacking
18HEAD6BODY1LEGS25 landed
Absorbing
13HEAD3BODY0LEGS16 absorbed
Means
Attacking
13HEAD3BODY0LEGS16 landed
Absorbing
18HEAD6BODY1LEGS25 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Brown targets the head (72% of attacks) — Means absorbs 72% of strikes there
🎯Means targets the head (81% of attacks) — Brown absorbs 81% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Brown
RND
Means
0/0R00/0

Brown · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.2W5.5L5.2W5.0W5.5W2.8L2.8L2.8L4.5W2.8L5.2W5.1W5.2W5.2W5.2W5.0W5.2W5.8L5.5L5.1W4.0L1.5L4.0L5.0W5.2W3.3L5.5L5.2W5.9L5.2W2008-062011-062014-052019-122023-05
WinLossTrend

Means · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0104.5W5.0W5.5L5.5L6.1L4.5W4.5W5.0W5.5W1.9L5.2W5.2W2.8L4.5W6.6L5.5L5.0W2.2L5.0W3.7L4.5W4.5W4.8W3.4L6.1L2.8L5.5W3.3L1.7L2012-022015-042018-112022-102024-10
WinLossTrend

Brown · Last 5

W · KO · R1
Court McGeeRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · 2023-05
L · Dec · R3
Bryan BarberenaRating 5.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus · 2022-03
W · KO · R2
Dhiego LimaRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige · 2021-06
L · Dec · R3
Carlos ConditRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Kattar · 2021-01
L · KO · R2
Miguel BaezaRating 3.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris · 2020-05

Means · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Court McGeeRating 1.7
Submission
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
L · KO · R1
Uros MedicRating 3.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez · 2024-04
W · KO · R3
Andre FialhoRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot · 2023-09
L · Sub · R2
Alex MoronoRating 2.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · 2023-05
L · Dec · R3
Max GriffinRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen · 2022-10

News & Media

Matt Brown · Tim Means
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