UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura
London, United Kingdom
22 Jul 2023
Lightweight
VS
46%
Herbert
54%
Ziam
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Ziam
This is a genuine toss-up — Herbert at 46% vs Ziam at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Herbert has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.
Striking split: Herbert throws more volume but Ziam connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Herbert's chin rating of 40 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Herbert
Ziam
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
6'1"
77"+
Reach
75"
38
Age
+29
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Herbert
Ziam
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
49.6
58.1
43.3
Performance Avg
51.1
43
Quality of Victory
32
74
Momentum Score
91
Herbert
Ziam
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
0.7
45%
Strike Accuracy
55%
5.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.1
2 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
9
6
Body
5
10
Leg
7
RangeRange
17Distance18
3Clinch3
0Ground0
Herbert
Ziam
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.4
1.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.8
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Herbert
Ziam
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
40
86
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/20 fights
Chin rating based on
11/22 fights
Herbert
Ziam
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
74
91
Current form
6-fight 🔥 win streak
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
Last 5
Upcoming
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Herbert
Ziam
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
25%
2
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Herbert
Ziam
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.1
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.8
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.3
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
4.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.6
HerbertZiam
Strike Zones
Herbert
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
21 absorbedZiam
Attacking
21 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Herbert targets the legs (50% of attacks) — Ziam absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Ziam targets the head (43% of attacks) — Herbert absorbs 43% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Herbert
RND
Ziam
0/0R00/0
Herbert · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Ziam · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Herbert · Last 5
W · KO · R1
Mandel NalloRating 5KO/TKO
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UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · 2023-07
Upcoming
Ludovit KleinDecision
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Ziam · Last 5
Upcoming
Tom NolanUFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
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Mike DavisRating 5.6Decision
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Matt FrevolaRating 5.7KO/TKO
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Claudio PuellesRating 5.4Decision
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