UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. Choi
St. Louis, USA
14 Jan 2018
Featherweight
VS
86%
Burnell
14%
Santiago
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
MB
Mads Burnell
9 – 3
5'8"69" reachOrthodox32 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 11
MS
Mike Santiago
19 – 12
Well-Rounded3-fight slide36 yrsOrthodox69" reach5'10"
CFR 2

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Burnell

Burnell is a strong favourite at 86% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Burnell has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 25 points.

Santiago has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Santiago has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Burnell
Santiago
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'10"
69"
Reach
69"
32+
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Burnell
Santiago
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
10.8
1.8
28.3
Performance Avg
0.0
25
Quality of Victory
0
33
Momentum Score
0
Burnell
Santiago
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.3
0.8
33%
Strike Accuracy
46%
0.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
8
0
Body
8
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
1Distance2
1Clinch10
4Ground5
Burnell
Santiago
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.4
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Burnell
Santiago
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
76
64
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
3/12 fights
Chin rating based on
3/31 fights
Burnell
Santiago
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
33
0
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
Burnell
Santiago
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Burnell
Santiago
Striking0.7 / 0.0Volume8.7 / 0.0Grappling2.4 / 0.0Wrestling1.7 / 0.0Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure1.0 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
1.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
8.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Burnell
Strike Zones
Santiago
Burnell
Attacking
6HEAD0BODY0LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD8BODY1LEGS17 absorbed
Santiago
Attacking
8HEAD8BODY1LEGS17 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD0BODY0LEGS6 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Burnell targets the head (100% of attacks) — Santiago absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Santiago targets the head (47% of attacks) — Burnell absorbs 47% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Burnell
RND
Santiago
0/0R00/0

Burnell · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0104.0L4.5W5.4L2017-092018-012018-05
WinLossTrend

Santiago · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.5
0102.8L5.5L2.2L2017-092018-012018-06
WinLossTrend

Burnell · Last 3

L · Sub · R3
Arnold AllenRating 5.4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Till · 2018-05
W · Dec · R3
Mike SantiagoRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. Choi · 2018-01
L · Sub · R3
Michel PrazeresRating 4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Struve · 2017-09

Santiago · Last 3

L · KO · R1
Dan IgeRating 2.2
KO/TKO
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2 · 2018-06
L · Dec · R3
Mads BurnellRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. Choi · 2018-01
L · Sub · R2
Zabit MagomedsharipovRating 2.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Struve · 2017-09

News & Media

Mads Burnell · Mike Santiago
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