UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
Las Vegas, USA
12 Dec 2015
Bantamweight
VS
60%
Faber
40%
Saenz
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Faber
Faber holds a meaningful edge at 60% per the CFR ratings — but Saenz has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 7 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Faber has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 17 points.
Saenz has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Faber's chin rating of 46 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Saenz has a chin rating of 30 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Faber
Saenz
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
5'6"
67"+
Reach
66"
47
Age
+45
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Faber
Saenz
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
20.8
13.7
49.4
Performance Avg
35.0
42
Quality of Victory
25
100
Momentum Score
75
Faber
Saenz
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
1.1
46%
Strike Accuracy
48%
2.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
16
Head
10
4
Body
6
0
Leg
4
RangeRange
16Distance15
3Clinch5
1Ground0
Faber
Saenz
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
5.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
3.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Faber
Saenz
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
46
30
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.3 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/46 fights
Chin rating based on
10/20 fights
Faber
Saenz
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
75
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Faber
Saenz
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
64%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
6
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Faber
Saenz
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.0
5.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
3.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
5.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.5
4.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
9.0
FaberSaenz
Strike Zones
Faber
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedSaenz
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Faber targets the head (80% of attacks) — Saenz absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Saenz targets the head (50% of attacks) — Faber absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Faber
RND
Saenz
0/0R00/0
Faber · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Saenz · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Faber · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Petr YanRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington · 2019-12
W · KO · R1
Ricky SimonRating 5.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: De Randamie vs. Ladd · 2019-07
W · Dec · R3
Brad PickettRating 4.5Decision
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson · 2016-12
L · Dec · R3
Jimmie RiveraRating 5.5Decision
UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem · 2016-09
L · Dec · R5
Dominick CruzRating 5.5Decision
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2 · 2016-06
Saenz · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Jonathan MartinezRating 4.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Shahbazyan · 2020-08
L · KO · R1
Marlon VeraRating 2.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis · 2019-03
W · Dec · R3
Henry BrionesRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman · 2018-05
W · Dec · R3
Merab DvalishviliRating 5.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Ortega · 2017-12
L · Dec · R3
Augusto MendesRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Penn · 2017-01