UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida
Charlotte, USA
13 May 2023
Light Heavyweight
VS
54%
Smith
46%
Walker
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Smith
This is a genuine toss-up — Smith at 54% vs Walker at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Walker has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Smith's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Walker has a chin rating of 6 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Smith
Walker
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"
Height
+6'6"
76"
Reach
+82"
37
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Smith
Walker
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
58.3
50.4
50.7
Performance Avg
54.6
50
Quality of Victory
56
100
Momentum Score
41
Smith
Walker
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
2.0
52%
Strike Accuracy
59%
4.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
8.6
5 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
9
6
Body
2
1
Leg
22
RangeRange
10Distance31
0Clinch0
0Ground2
Smith
Walker
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
3.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.3
2.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Smith
Walker
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
6
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
6
KO/TKO Losses
4
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
25/60 fights
Chin rating based on
16/32 fights
Smith
Walker
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
41
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
Upcoming
Smith
Walker
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
77%
88%
5
KO / TKO Wins
6
5
Submission Wins
1
3
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Smith
Walker
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.6
3.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.3
2.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.9
3.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.3
6.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.7
2.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.1
SmithWalker
Strike Zones
Smith
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
33 absorbedWalker
Attacking
33 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Smith targets the body (60% of attacks) — Walker absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Walker targets the legs (67% of attacks) — Smith absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Smith
RND
Walker
0/0R00/0
Smith · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Walker · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Smith · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Zhang MingyangRating 3.5KO/TKO
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L · KO · R2
Dominick ReyesRating 3.8KO/TKO
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L · Dec · R3
Roman DolidzeRating 6.9Decision
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W · Sub · R1
Vitor PetrinoRating 6.1Submission
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L · KO · R3
Khalil Rountree Jr.Rating 4.9KO/TKO
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Walker · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Dominick ReyesRating 6.5Decision
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
W · KO · R2
Zhang MingyangRating 7.2KO/TKO
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L · KO · R1
Volkan OezdemirRating 2.3KO/TKO
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L · KO · R2
Magomed AnkalaevRating 3.7KO/TKO
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Upcoming
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