UFC Fight Night: Thomas vs Florian
Las Vegas, USA
19 Sept 2007
Welterweight
VS
65%
Alves
35%
Hironaka
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 4:04
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Alves
Alves holds a meaningful edge at 65% per the CFR ratings — but Hironaka has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Alves has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 17 points.
Alves has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Alves's chin rating of 6 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Hironaka has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Alves
Hironaka
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'10"
70"
Reach
70"
42+
Age
49
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Alves
Hironaka
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.5
8.8
47.3
Performance Avg
25.0
42
Quality of Victory
25
63
Momentum Score
22
Alves
Hironaka
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
0.5
45%
Strike Accuracy
43%
5.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
7 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
16
Head
3
2
Body
2
6
Leg
1
RangeRange
11Distance4
13Clinch2
0Ground0
Alves
Hironaka
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
1.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Alves
Hironaka
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
6
54
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
3
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
27/38 fights
Chin rating based on
4/32 fights
Alves
Hironaka
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
63
22
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Alves
Hironaka
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
53%
0%
7
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
7
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Alves
Hironaka
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
1.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.8
4.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.5
AlvesHironaka
Strike Zones
Alves
Attacking
24 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedHironaka
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
24 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Alves targets the head (67% of attacks) — Hironaka absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Hironaka targets the head (50% of attacks) — Alves absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Alves
RND
Hironaka
0/0R00/0
Alves · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Hironaka · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.9WinLossTrend
Alves · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Tim MeansRating 1.6Submission
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik · 2019-12
L · Dec · R3
Laureano StaropoliRating 5.5Decision
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade · 2019-05
W · Dec · R3
Max GriffinRating 5.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2 · 2019-02
L · Dec · R3
Aleksei KunchenkoRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Oleinik · 2018-09
L · KO · R2
Curtis MillenderRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros · 2018-02
Hironaka · Last 4
L · KO · R2
Jonathan GouletRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 83: Serra vs St-Pierre 2 · 2008-04
L · KO · R2
Thiago AlvesRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thomas vs Florian · 2007-09
W · Dec · R3
Forrest PetzRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Stevenson vs Guillard · 2007-04
L · Dec · R3
Jon FitchRating 5.5Decision
UFC 64: Unstoppable · 2006-10