UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
Seattle, USA
27 Jul 2013
Women's Bantamweight
VS
22%
Carmouche
78%
Andrade
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 3:57
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Andrade
Andrade is a strong favourite at 78% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 37 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Andrade has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.
Striking split: Andrade throws more volume but Carmouche connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Andrade has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Carmouche
Andrade
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"+
Height
5'1"
66"+
Reach
62"
42
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Carmouche
Andrade
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
14.0
51.0
38.6
Performance Avg
49.4
31
Quality of Victory
45
40
Momentum Score
79
Carmouche
Andrade
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
3.1
52%
Strike Accuracy
52%
3.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.7
1 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
41
Head
1
1
Body
1
2
Leg
1
RangeRange
2Distance3
0Clinch0
42Ground0
Carmouche
Andrade
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.5
1.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Carmouche
Andrade
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
80
0
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
4
1
Sub Losses
5
—
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/20 fights
Chin rating based on
30/41 fights
Carmouche
Andrade
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
40
79
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Carmouche
Andrade
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
20%
53%
1
KO / TKO Wins
6
0
Submission Wins
3
4
Decision Wins
8
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Carmouche
Andrade
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.7
1.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.5
1.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.8
2.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.4
7.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.9
CarmoucheAndrade
Strike Zones
Carmouche
Attacking
44 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedAndrade
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
44 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Carmouche targets the head (93% of attacks) — Andrade absorbs 93% of strikes there
🎯Andrade targets the head (33% of attacks) — Carmouche absorbs 33% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Carmouche
RND
Andrade
0/0R00/0
Carmouche · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Andrade · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Carmouche · Last 5
L · Dec · R5
Valentina ShevchenkoRating 6.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs. Carmouche 2 · 2019-08
W · Dec · R3
Lucie PudilovaRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Santos · 2019-02
W · Dec · R3
Jennifer MaiaRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Ivanov · 2018-07
L · Dec · R3
Alexis DavisRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Ortega · 2017-12
W · Dec · R3
Katlyn CerminaraRating 4.8Decision
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor · 2016-11
Andrade · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Loopy GodinezRating 6Decision
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
L · Sub · R1
Jasmine JasudaviciusRating 2.4Submission
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05
L · Dec · R3
Natalia SilvaRating 7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09
W · Dec · R3
Marina RodriguezRating 5.2Decision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
W · KO · R2
Mackenzie DernRating 6.5KO/TKO
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11