UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
11 Oct 2025
Women's Strawweight
VS
59%
Polastri
41%
Kowalkiewicz
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 2:56
Julia
Julia Polastri
"Psycho"
14 – 6
5'2"63" reachOrthodox28 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 48
Karolina
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
16 – 10
Well-Rounded3-fight slide40 yrsOrthodox64" reach5'3"
CFR 33

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Polastri

This is a genuine toss-up — Polastri at 59% vs Kowalkiewicz at 41% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 15 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Polastri has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Kowalkiewicz has a chin rating of 20 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Polastri
Kowalkiewicz
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'2"
Height
+5'3"
63"
Reach
+64"
28+
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Polastri
Kowalkiewicz
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
47.7
32.7
38.5
Performance Avg
35.6
38
Quality of Victory
28
59
Momentum Score
40
Polastri
Kowalkiewicz
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.4
2.1
59%
Strike Accuracy
42%
5.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.9
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
25
Head
10
11
Body
7
2
Leg
3
RangeRange
38Distance20
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Polastri
Kowalkiewicz
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.2
/ 10
3.0
/ 10
0.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.1
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
1.1
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Polastri
Kowalkiewicz
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
94
20
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
2
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/20 fights
Chin rating based on
19/26 fights
Polastri
Kowalkiewicz
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
59
40
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Polastri
Kowalkiewicz
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
11%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
1
1
Decision Wins
8

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Polastri
Kowalkiewicz
Striking5.8 / 0.9Volume4.8 / 8.1Grappling1.2 / 3.0Wrestling0.8 / 2.1Submission0.0 / 1.1Pressure4.7 / 2.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.9
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.0
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.1
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.1
4.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
2.2
4.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.1
Polastri
Strike Zones
Kowalkiewicz
Polastri
Attacking
25HEAD11BODY2LEGS38 landed
Absorbing
10HEAD7BODY3LEGS20 absorbed
Kowalkiewicz
Attacking
10HEAD7BODY3LEGS20 landed
Absorbing
25HEAD11BODY2LEGS38 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Polastri targets the head (66% of attacks) — Kowalkiewicz absorbs 66% of strikes there
🎯Kowalkiewicz targets the head (50% of attacks) — Polastri absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Polastri
RND
Kowalkiewicz
0/0R00/0

Polastri · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.8
0106.0L5.0W6.0L5.5W6.7L2024-062024-102025-032025-102026-04
WinLossTrend

Kowalkiewicz · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0104.5W4.5W5.9W5.5L1.5L4.5W4.5W2.3L5.5L6.7L6.5L1.6L5.2W4.5W4.7W4.5W6.4L6.8L4.6L2015-122017-102020-022023-102025-10
WinLossTrend

Polastri · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Talita AlencarRating 6.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
W · KO · R3
Karolina KowalkiewiczRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · Dec · R3
Loopy GodinezRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Cory McKennaRating 5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10
L · Dec · R3
Josefine KnutssonRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira · 2024-06

Kowalkiewicz · Last 5

L · KO · R3
Julia PolastriRating 4.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · Dec · R3
Denise GomesRating 6.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
Iasmin LucindoRating 6.4
Decision
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
W · Dec · R3
Diana BelbitaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green · 2023-10
W · Dec · R3
Vanessa DemopoulosRating 4.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · 2023-05

News & Media

Julia Polastri · Karolina Kowalkiewicz
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