METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
11 Oct 2025
Women's Strawweight
VS
64%
Polastri
36%
Kowalkiewicz
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 2:56
★ Official Result
Julia PolastriwinsKO/TKOR3 · 2:56
def. Karolina Kowalkiewicz · UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Polastri
→
Actual result
Polastri wins
KO/TKO · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Polastri holds a meaningful edge at 64% per the CFR ratings — but Kowalkiewicz has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 26 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Polastri has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 17 points.
Risk flags
Kowalkiewicz has a chin rating of 20 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
PolastriKowalkiewicz
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Polastri
Kowalkiewicz
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'2"
Height
+5'3"
63"
Reach
+64"
28+
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Polastri
Kowalkiewicz
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
58.5
32.7
47.0
Performance Avg
35.6
45
Quality of Victory
28
80
Momentum Score
40
Polastri
Kowalkiewicz
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
7.7
/ 10
0.9
/ 10
6.2
Style: Pressure
2.2
3.7
Style: Volume
8.1
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
25
Head
10
11
Body
7
2
Leg
3
RangeRange
38Distance20
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Polastri
Kowalkiewicz
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.8
/ 10
3.0
/ 10
0.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.1
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
1.1
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Polastri
Kowalkiewicz
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
94
20
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
2
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/20 fights
Chin rating based on
19/26 fights
Polastri
Kowalkiewicz
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
80
40
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Polastri
Kowalkiewicz
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
11%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
1
1
Decision Wins
8
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Polastri
Kowalkiewicz
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.9
0.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.0
0.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.1
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.1
6.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
2.2
3.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.1
PolastriKowalkiewicz
Strike Zones
Polastri
Attacking
38 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedKowalkiewicz
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
38 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Polastri targets the head (66% of attacks) — Kowalkiewicz absorbs 66% of strikes there
🎯Kowalkiewicz targets the head (50% of attacks) — Polastri absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Polastri
RND
Kowalkiewicz
0/0R00/0
Polastri · Last 5
W · KO · R1
Xiong JingnanKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song · 2026-08
L · Dec · R3
Talita AlencarDecision
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
W · KO · R3
Karolina KowalkiewiczKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · Dec · R3
Loopy GodinezDecision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Cory McKennaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10
Kowalkiewicz · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Julia PolastriKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · Dec · R3
Denise GomesDecision
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
Iasmin LucindoDecision
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
W · Dec · R3
Diana BelbitaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green · 2023-10
W · Dec · R3
Vanessa DemopoulosDecision
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · 2023-05