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UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill
Las Vegas, USA
28 May 2011
Heavyweight
VS
53%
Mir
47%
Nelson
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
FM
Frank Mir
18 – 11
6'3"79" reachSouthpaw47 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 21
RN
Roy Nelson
"Big Country"
22 – 14
Knockout Artist50 yrsOrthodox73" reach6'0"
CFR 19
★ Official Result
Frank MirwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Roy Nelson · UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Mir
→
Actual result
Mir wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Mir at 53% vs Nelson at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Mir has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Mir's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Nelson has a chin rating of 60 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
MirNelson
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Mir
Nelson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
6'0"
79"+
Reach
73"
47+
Age
50
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Mir
Nelson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
21.2
18.5
57.4
Performance Avg
55.6
56
Quality of Victory
61
88
Momentum Score
26
Mir
Nelson
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.1
1.0
48%
Strike Accuracy
40%
4.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
9.8
5 KOs
KO Finishes
8 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
1
3
Body
0
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
3Distance2
3Clinch1
9Ground0
Mir
Nelson
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
4.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.3
3.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Mir
Nelson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
60
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
8
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
27/29 fights
Chin rating based on
19/36 fights
Mir
Nelson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
88
26
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Mir
Nelson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
81%
89%
5
KO / TKO Wins
8
8
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Mir
Nelson
Striking4.3 / 9.8Volume2.2 / 1.8Grappling4.3 / 0.3Wrestling3.0 / 0.2Submission5.0 / 0.0Pressure7.5 / 7.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
9.8
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.3
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.2
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.6
2.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.8
Mir
Strike Zones
Nelson
Mir
Attacking
11HEAD3BODY1LEGS15 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY2LEGS3 absorbed
Nelson
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY2LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
11HEAD3BODY1LEGS15 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Mir targets the head (73% of attacks) — Nelson absorbs 73% of strikes there
🎯Nelson targets the legs (67% of attacks) — Mir absorbs 67% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Mir
RND
Nelson
0/0R00/0

Mir · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.0
0105.0W5.0W1.5L5.0W4.0W5.2W5.0W1.5L4.5W1.5L5.0W5.0W5.1W2.1L5.0W1.5L5.5W4.5W5.0W2.1L5.5L1.5L5.5L5.0W5.0W6.2L1.5L2001-112006-022009-122013-082016-03
WinLossTrend

Nelson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.0W5.0W5.5L5.5L5.5W5.5L5.0W5.0W5.0W6.6L5.5L5.0W2.1L5.5L5.5L4.5W6.7L5.2W6.8L2009-122012-022013-102016-022017-04
WinLossTrend

Mir · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Mark HuntRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir · 2016-03
L · Dec · R3
Andrei ArlovskiRating 6.2
Decision
UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2 · 2015-09
W · KO · R1
Todd DuffeeRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee · 2015-07
W · KO · R1
Antonio SilvaRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir · 2015-02
L · Dec · R3
Alistair OvereemRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2 · 2014-02

Nelson · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Alexander VolkovRating 6.8
Decision
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis · 2017-04
W · KO · R2
Antonio SilvaRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lansberg · 2016-09
L · Dec · R3
Derrick LewisRating 6.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez · 2016-07
W · Dec · R3
Jared RosholtRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs Thompson · 2016-02
L · Dec · R5
Josh BarnettRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson · 2015-09

News & Media

Frank Mir · Roy Nelson
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