UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
Seattle, USA
27 Jul 2013
Middleweight
VS
78%
Herman
22%
Smith
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
EH
Ed Herman
"Short Fuse"
27 – 16
6'1"77" reachOrthodox45 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 39
TS
Trevor Smith
"Hot Sauce"
15 – 10
Well-Rounded3-fight slide45 yrsOrthodox75" reach6'3"
CFR 11

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Herman

Herman is a strong favourite at 78% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 28 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Herman has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 19 points.

Smith has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Herman's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Smith has a chin rating of 26 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Herman
Smith
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'3"
77"+
Reach
75"
45
Age
45
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Herman
Smith
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
38.7
10.9
47.4
Performance Avg
31.7
44
Quality of Victory
25
82
Momentum Score
45
Herman
Smith
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.1
47%
Strike Accuracy
53%
4.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.8
4 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
10
6
Body
7
0
Leg
9
RangeRange
11Distance19
4Clinch7
0Ground0
Herman
Smith
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
3.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
2.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Herman
Smith
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
26
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
4
KO/TKO Losses
3
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
26/43 fights
Chin rating based on
12/25 fights
Herman
Smith
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
82
45
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Herman
Smith
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
69%
0%
4
KO / TKO Wins
0
5
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Herman
Smith
Striking4.1 / 0.8Volume3.5 / 8.8Grappling3.8 / 2.4Wrestling2.7 / 1.7Submission3.9 / 0.0Pressure6.4 / 1.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.8
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
3.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.3
3.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.8
Herman
Strike Zones
Smith
Herman
Attacking
9HEAD6BODY0LEGS15 landed
Absorbing
10HEAD7BODY9LEGS26 absorbed
Smith
Attacking
10HEAD7BODY9LEGS26 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD6BODY0LEGS15 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Herman targets the head (60% of attacks) — Smith absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Smith targets the head (38% of attacks) — Herman absorbs 38% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Herman
RND
Smith
0/0R00/0

Herman · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.5L1.5L5.0W5.2W5.5W2.8L5.5L4.5W2.8L5.0W5.0W5.2W4.5W5.5L4.5W1.8L5.2W4.0L5.5L5.5L5.0W4.5W5.5W6.4L4.4L2006-062009-042014-052019-112023-04
WinLossTrend

Smith · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0105.7L4.5W1.5L4.5W1.5L4.5W4.5W5.5L4.5W5.5L5.9L5.0L2013-072014-072016-082018-052019-12
WinLossTrend

Herman · Last 5

L · KO · R3
Zak CummingsRating 4.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
L · Dec · R3
Alonzo MenifieldRating 6.4
Decision
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane · 2021-08
W · Sub · R3
Mike RodriguezRating 5.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill · 2020-09
W · Dec · R3
Khadis IbragimovRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Zabit vs. Kattar · 2019-11
W · KO · R1
Patrick CumminsRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Lee · 2019-05

Smith · Last 5

L · KO · R3
Makhmud MuradovRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik · 2019-12
L · Dec · R3
Zak CummingsRating 5.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquinta · 2018-12
L · Dec · R3
Elias TheodorouRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Till · 2018-05
W · Dec · R3
Chris CamozziRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Teixeira · 2017-05
L · Dec · R3
Andrew SanchezRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Abdurakhimov · 2016-12

News & Media

Ed Herman · Trevor Smith
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