METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
Seattle, USA
27 Jul 2013
Middleweight
VS
78%
Herman
22%
Smith
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Ed HermanwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Trevor Smith · UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Herman
→
Actual result
Herman wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Herman is a strong favourite at 78% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 28 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Herman has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 19 points.
Risk flags
Herman's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Smith has a chin rating of 26 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
HermanSmith
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Herman
Smith
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'3"
77"+
Reach
75"
45
Age
45
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Herman
Smith
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
38.7
10.9
47.4
Performance Avg
31.7
44
Quality of Victory
25
82
Momentum Score
45
Herman
Smith
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.1
/ 10
0.8
/ 10
6.4
Style: Pressure
1.3
3.5
Style: Volume
8.8
4 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
10
6
Body
7
0
Leg
9
RangeRange
11Distance19
4Clinch7
0Ground0
Herman
Smith
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.8
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
2.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
3.9
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
5
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Herman
Smith
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
26
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
4
KO/TKO Losses
3
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
26/43 fights
Chin rating based on
12/25 fights
Herman
Smith
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
82
45
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Herman
Smith
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
69%
0%
4
KO / TKO Wins
0
5
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Herman
Smith
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.8
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
3.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.3
3.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.8
HermanSmith
Strike Zones
Herman
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
26 absorbedSmith
Attacking
26 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Herman targets the head (60% of attacks) — Smith absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Smith targets the head (38% of attacks) — Herman absorbs 38% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Herman
RND
Smith
0/0R00/0
Herman · Last 5
L · KO · R3
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