Cory Sandhagen vs Mario Bautista — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2

Las Vegas, USA

11 Jul 2026

Bantamweight

53%

Sandhagen

47%

Bautista

Win Probability

Decision

Round 3 · 5:00

Cory Sandhagen

18 – 6

5'11"70" reachSwitch34 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded

CFR 63

Mario Bautista

17 – 3

Well-Rounded2-fight win streak33 yrsSwitch69" reach5'9"

CFR 56

★ Official Result

Mario BautistawinsDecisionR3 · 5:00

def. Cory Sandhagen · UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Sandhagen

Mario Bautista wins by unanimous decision, controlling the fight on the mat and …

→

Actual result

Bautista wins

Decision · R3

Pre-fight analysis

Seven years after Sandhagen submitted him on short notice, Bautista got his revenge — and badly damaged a knee to do it.

Rematches rarely settle old scores this cleanly, but Mario Bautista made sure this one did. Seven years after Sandhagen submitted him on short notice in what was Bautista's UFC debut, "El Toro" got his revenge in the most complete way possible — grinding out a clean unanimous decision while badly damaging Sandhagen's leg along the way. The pre-fight read on this one centred on Bautista's evolutio…

Sandhagen intel

Sandhagen (18-7) suffered a leg injury mid-fight that compounded an already difficult night against Bautista's improved wrestling, extending his skid to two straight losses.

Bautista intel

Bautista (18-3) avenged a seven-year-old short-notice loss and continued arguably the best stretch of his career — nine wins in his last ten outings.

Key angles

Revenge factor — Bautista avenging a 2019 short-notice submission loss

Sandhagen's exposed takedown defence after the Dvalishvili fight

A mid-fight knee injury compounding Sandhagen's struggles

Bautista's nine-wins-in-ten stretch putting him in the title conversation

Sandhagen now 0-2 in his last two with real questions about his path back to the top

Risk flags

The injury factor makes it hard to fully separate skill gap from bad luck in assessing Sandhagen's decline

A healthy Sandhagen with better takedown defence preparation may have told a very different story

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

SandhagenBautista

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Sandhagen

Bautista

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

5'11"+

Height

5'9"

70"+

Reach

69"

Age

+33

Switch

Stance

Switch

Sandhagen

Bautista

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

63.1

56.3

52.1

Performance Avg

54.5

Quality of Victory

100

Momentum Score

Sandhagen

Bautista

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

5.8

/ 10

2.4

/ 10

5.8

Style: Pressure

5.3

4.2

Style: Volume

6.3

5 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

1 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

9Distance19

2Clinch6

0Ground15

Sandhagen

Bautista

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

1.6

/ 10

4.1

/ 10

1.1

Wrestling Style (/10)

2.9

0.9

Submission Style (/10)

3.3

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Sandhagen

Bautista

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

Never stopped

Verdict

Moderate

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

—

KO round context

Avg R2.0 stoppage

—

Last KO loss

11 fights ago

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

17/24 fights

Chin rating based on

15/20 fights

Sandhagen

Bautista

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

100

2-fight 📉 slide

Current form

2-fight 🔥 win streak

L · Dec · R3

L · Dec · R5

W · KO · R2

L · Dec · R5

W · Dec · R5

Last 5

W · Dec · R3

W · Sub · R2

L · Dec · R3

W · Dec · R3

Sandhagen

Bautista

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

55%

42%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Sandhagen

Bautista

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

5.8

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

2.4

1.6

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

4.1

1.1

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

2.9

0.9

Submission

Submission attack frequency

3.3

5.8

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

5.3

4.2

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

6.3

Sandhagen

Strike Zones

Bautista

Sandhagen

Attacking

11 landed

Absorbing

40 absorbed

Bautista

Attacking

40 landed

Absorbing

11 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Sandhagen targets the head (82% of attacks) — Bautista absorbs 82% of strikes there

🎯Bautista targets the head (80% of attacks) — Sandhagen absorbs 80% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Sandhagen

RND

Bautista

0/0R00/0

0/0R10/0

Sandhagen · Last 5

L · Dec · R3

Mario Bautista

Decision

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07

L · Dec · R5

Merab Dvalishvili

Decision

UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · 2025-10

W · KO · R2

Deiveson Figueiredo

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · 2025-05

L · Dec · R5

Umar Nurmagomedov

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08

W · Dec · R5

Rob Font

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Font · 2023-08

Bautista · Last 5

W · Dec · R3

Cory Sandhagen

Decision

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07

W · Sub · R2

Vinicius Oliveira

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02

L · Dec · R3

Umar Nurmagomedov

Decision

UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10

W · Dec · R3

Patchy Mix

Decision

UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06

W · Dec · R3

Jose Aldo

Decision

UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10

News & Media

Cory Sandhagen · Mario Bautista

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