UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
Denver, USA
28 Jan 2017
Welterweight
VS
2%
Nash
98%
Jingliang
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 4:45
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Jingliang
Jingliang is a strong favourite at 98% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 50 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Jingliang has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 48 points.
Nash has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Nash's chin rating of 34 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Jingliang has a chin rating of 46 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Nash
Jingliang
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
6'0"
74"+
Reach
71"
36+
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Nash
Jingliang
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
1.0
50.8
0.0
Performance Avg
53.1
0
Quality of Victory
48
0
Momentum Score
69
Nash
Jingliang
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.0
2.0
44%
Strike Accuracy
44%
0.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
8.5
0 KOs
KO Finishes
8 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
14
Head
10
3
Body
0
3
Leg
3
RangeRange
9Distance10
10Clinch1
1Ground2
Nash
Jingliang
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
0.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.7
0.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Nash
Jingliang
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
34
46
3 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
3/12 fights
Chin rating based on
18/28 fights
Nash
Jingliang
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
69
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
Nash
Jingliang
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
73%
0
KO / TKO Wins
8
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Nash
Jingliang
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.5
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.7
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.5
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
0.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.9
0.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.4
NashJingliang
Strike Zones
Nash
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedJingliang
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Nash targets the head (70% of attacks) — Jingliang absorbs 70% of strikes there
🎯Jingliang targets the head (77% of attacks) — Nash absorbs 77% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Nash
RND
Jingliang
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Nash · QOF Timeline
Avg: 2.7WinLossTrend
Jingliang · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Nash · Last 3
L · KO · R1
Song KenanRating 1.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs. Gastelum · 2017-11
L · KO · R2
Danny RobertsRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio · 2017-07
L · KO · R2
Li JingliangRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena · 2017-01
Jingliang · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Carlos PratesRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Daniel RodriguezRating 6.4Decision
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
W · KO · R2
Muslim SalikhovRating 6.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · 2022-07
L · Sub · R1
Khamzat ChimaevRating 3.4Submission
UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira · 2021-10
W · KO · R1
Santiago PonzinibbioRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Kattar · 2021-01