METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill
Las Vegas, USA
12 Sept 2020
Featherweight
VS
61%
Quarantillo
39%
Nelson
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 0:07
★ Official Result
Billy QuarantillowinsKO/TKOR3 · 0:07
def. Kyle Nelson · UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Quarantillo
→
Actual result
Quarantillo wins
KO/TKO · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Quarantillo holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Nelson has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 21 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Quarantillo has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Quarantillo's chin rating of 40 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Nelson has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
QuarantilloNelson
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Quarantillo
Nelson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+5'11"
70"
Reach
+71"
37
Age
+35
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Quarantillo
Nelson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
58.1
36.8
47.3
Performance Avg
41.6
42
Quality of Victory
39
100
Momentum Score
36
Quarantillo
Nelson
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.5
1.0
57%
Strike Accuracy
47%
6.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.9
3 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
1
0
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
3Distance2
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Quarantillo
Nelson
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.4
1.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Quarantillo
Nelson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
40
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
4
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.8 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/25 fights
Chin rating based on
12/24 fights
Quarantillo
Nelson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
36
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Quarantillo
Nelson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
40%
3
KO / TKO Wins
2
1
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Quarantillo
Nelson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.9
2.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.4
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.0
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
3.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.7
QuarantilloNelson
Strike Zones
Quarantillo
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedNelson
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Quarantillo targets the head (100% of attacks) — Nelson absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Nelson targets the head (50% of attacks) — Quarantillo absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Quarantillo
RND
Nelson
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Quarantillo · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Nelson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Quarantillo · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Cub SwansonRating 4.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
L · Sub · R2
Youssef ZalalRating 3.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas · 2024-03
W · Dec · R3
Damon JacksonRating 4.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Font · 2023-08
L · KO · R1
Edson BarbozaRating 2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
W · KO · R2
Alexander HernandezRating 6.1KO/TKO
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · 2022-12
Nelson · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Terrance McKinneyRating 3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Matt FrevolaRating 4.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10
L · KO · R1
Steve GarciaRating 3.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09
W · KO · R1
Bill AlgeoRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · 2024-03
W · Dec · R3
Fernando PadillaRating 5.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 · 2023-09