METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill
Las Vegas, USA
12 Sept 2020
Featherweight
VS
59%
Quarantillo
41%
Nelson
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 0:07
★ Official Result
Billy QuarantillowinsKO/TKOR3 · 0:07
def. Kyle Nelson · UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Quarantillo
→
Actual result
Quarantillo wins
KO/TKO · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Quarantillo at 59% vs Nelson at 41% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 16 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Quarantillo's chin rating of 38 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Nelson has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
QuarantilloNelson
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Quarantillo
Nelson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+5'11"
70"
Reach
+71"
37
Age
+35
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Quarantillo
Nelson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
52.6
36.8
45.5
Performance Avg
41.6
42
Quality of Victory
39
78
Momentum Score
36
Quarantillo
Nelson
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
6.0
/ 10
4.9
/ 10
6.2
Style: Pressure
4.2
3.7
Style: Volume
5.7
3 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
2 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
1
0
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
3Distance2
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Quarantillo
Nelson
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.1
/ 10
1.4
/ 10
1.5
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.0
1.7
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Quarantillo
Nelson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
38
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
4
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.8 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/25 fights
Chin rating based on
12/24 fights
Quarantillo
Nelson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
36
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Quarantillo
Nelson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
40%
3
KO / TKO Wins
2
1
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Quarantillo
Nelson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.9
2.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.4
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.0
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
3.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.7
QuarantilloNelson
Strike Zones
Quarantillo
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedNelson
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Quarantillo targets the head (100% of attacks) — Nelson absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Nelson targets the head (50% of attacks) — Quarantillo absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Quarantillo
RND
Nelson
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Quarantillo · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Diego FerreiraDecision
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Cub SwansonKO/TKO
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L · Sub · R2
Youssef ZalalSubmission
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W · Dec · R3
Damon JacksonDecision
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L · KO · R1
Edson BarbozaKO/TKO
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Nelson · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Terrance McKinneyKO/TKO
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W · Dec · R3
Matt FrevolaDecision
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L · KO · R1
Steve GarciaKO/TKO
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W · KO · R1
Bill AlgeoKO/TKO
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W · Dec · R3
Fernando PadillaDecision
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