UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill
Las Vegas, USA
12 Sept 2020
Featherweight
VS
61%
Quarantillo
39%
Nelson
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 0:07
Billy
Billy Quarantillo
18 – 7
5'10"70" reachOrthodox37 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 58
Kyle
Kyle Nelson
"The Monster"
17 – 7
Well-Rounded35 yrsSwitch71" reach5'11"
CFR 37

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Quarantillo

Quarantillo holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Nelson has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 21 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Quarantillo has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Quarantillo's chin rating of 40 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Nelson has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Quarantillo
Nelson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+5'11"
70"
Reach
+71"
37
Age
+35
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Quarantillo
Nelson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
58.1
36.8
47.3
Performance Avg
41.6
42
Quality of Victory
39
100
Momentum Score
36
Quarantillo
Nelson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.5
1.0
57%
Strike Accuracy
47%
6.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.9
3 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
1
0
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
3Distance2
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Quarantillo
Nelson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.4
1.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Quarantillo
Nelson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
40
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
4
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.8 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/25 fights
Chin rating based on
12/24 fights
Quarantillo
Nelson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
36
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Quarantillo
Nelson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
40%
3
KO / TKO Wins
2
1
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Quarantillo
Nelson
Striking6.1 / 4.9Volume3.8 / 5.7Grappling2.1 / 1.4Wrestling1.5 / 1.0Submission1.7 / 0.0Pressure6.3 / 4.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.9
2.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.4
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.0
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
3.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.7
Quarantillo
Strike Zones
Nelson
Quarantillo
Attacking
3HEAD0BODY0LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY1LEGS2 absorbed
Nelson
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY1LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD0BODY0LEGS3 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Quarantillo targets the head (100% of attacks) — Nelson absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Nelson targets the head (50% of attacks) — Quarantillo absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Quarantillo
RND
Nelson
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Quarantillo · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0105.2W4.5W5.6W5.5L5.7W5.5L6.1W2.0L4.8W3.8L4.5L2019-122020-122022-122024-032024-12
WinLossTrend

Nelson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0103.8L4.0L5.0W5.2L6.2L4.5W5.8W5.2W3.4L4.7W3.0L2018-122020-092023-092025-102026-03
WinLossTrend

Quarantillo · Last 5

L · KO · R3
Cub SwansonRating 4.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
L · Sub · R2
Youssef ZalalRating 3.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas · 2024-03
W · Dec · R3
Damon JacksonRating 4.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Font · 2023-08
L · KO · R1
Edson BarbozaRating 2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
W · KO · R2
Alexander HernandezRating 6.1
KO/TKO
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · 2022-12

Nelson · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Terrance McKinneyRating 3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Matt FrevolaRating 4.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10
L · KO · R1
Steve GarciaRating 3.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09
W · KO · R1
Bill AlgeoRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · 2024-03
W · Dec · R3
Fernando PadillaRating 5.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 · 2023-09

News & Media

Billy Quarantillo · Kyle Nelson
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