UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
23 Jan 2021
Light Heavyweight
VS
56%
Jr.
44%
Prachnio
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Jr.
This is a genuine toss-up — Jr. at 56% vs Prachnio at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Jr. has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.
Prachnio has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Jr.'s chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Prachnio has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Jr.
Prachnio
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'3"
76"+
Reach
73"
36+
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Jr.
Prachnio
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
53.7
42.9
52.0
Performance Avg
34.0
48
Quality of Victory
33
77
Momentum Score
96
Jr.
Prachnio
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
2.2
42%
Strike Accuracy
53%
8.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.2
7 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
15
3
Body
16
0
Leg
9
RangeRange
13Distance40
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Jr.
Prachnio
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.7
/ 10
1.8
/ 10
0.5
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.3
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Jr.
Prachnio
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
KO risk
Verdict
3 consec. KOs
4
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
3
Avg R2.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
8 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/22 fights
Chin rating based on
11/26 fights
Jr.
Prachnio
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
77
96
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R4
W · KO · R3
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
Jr.
Prachnio
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
70%
25%
7
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Jr.
Prachnio
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.2
0.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.8
0.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.3
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
2.8
3.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.7
Jr.Prachnio
Strike Zones
Jr.
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
40 absorbedPrachnio
Attacking
40 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Jr. targets the head (77% of attacks) — Prachnio absorbs 77% of strikes there
🎯Prachnio targets the body (40% of attacks) — Jr. absorbs 40% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Jr.
RND
Prachnio
0/0R00/0
Jr. · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Prachnio · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.1WinLossTrend
Jr. · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Jiri ProchazkaRating 5.7KO/TKO
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · 2025-10
W · Dec · R5
Jamahal HillRating 5.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. · 2025-06
L · KO · R4
Alex PereiraRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
W · KO · R3
Anthony SmithRating 6.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · 2023-12
W · KO · R1
Chris DaukausRating 5.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos · 2023-08
Prachnio · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Jimmy CruteRating 3Submission
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · Sub · R3
Modestas BukauskasRating 4.8Submission
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
W · Dec · R3
Devin ClarkRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · 2024-02
L · Sub · R3
Vitor PetrinoRating 5.1Submission
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · 2023-07
W · Dec · R3
William KnightRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield · 2023-02