UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic
Las Vegas, USA
29 Aug 2020
Welterweight
VS
75%
Brady
25%
Aguilera
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 1:47
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Brady
Brady is a strong favourite at 75% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 38 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Aguilera has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 25 points.
Brady has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Brady's chin rating of 56 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Brady
Aguilera
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'9"
72"
Reach
72"
33+
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Brady
Aguilera
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
57.4
19.2
53.7
Performance Avg
49.3
35
Quality of Victory
60
84
Momentum Score
43
Brady
Aguilera
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.2
54%
Strike Accuracy
38%
1.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
3
0
Body
0
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
4Distance4
0Clinch0
2Ground0
Brady
Aguilera
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
4.9
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
3.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
4.4
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
4
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Brady
Aguilera
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
56
76
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/21 fights
Chin rating based on
3/22 fights
Brady
Aguilera
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
84
43
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R4
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
Brady
Aguilera
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
44%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
4
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Brady
Aguilera
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
4.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
3.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
4.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
6.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.7
BradyAguilera
Strike Zones
Brady
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedAguilera
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Brady targets the head (83% of attacks) — Aguilera absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Aguilera targets the head (75% of attacks) — Brady absorbs 75% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Brady
RND
Aguilera
0/0R00/0
Brady · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Aguilera · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.7WinLossTrend
Brady · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Joaquin BuckleyRating 5.7Decision
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · KO · R1
Michael MoralesRating 3.6KO/TKO
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
W · Sub · R4
Leon EdwardsRating 6.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
W · Dec · R5
Gilbert BurnsRating 4.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09
W · Sub · R3
Kelvin GastelumRating 5.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
Aguilera · Last 3
L · Sub · R1
Carlston HarrisRating 2.3Submission
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Waterson · 2021-05
L · Sub · R2
Sean BradyRating 3.9Submission
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic · 2020-08
W · KO · R1
Anthony IvyRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvillo · 2020-06