UFC 81: Breaking Point
Las Vegas, USA
2 Feb 2008
Lightweight
VS
57%
Emerson
43%
Nakamura
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
RE
Rob Emerson
"The Saint"
18 – 12
5'9"70" reachOrthodox44 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 18
KN
Keita Nakamura
"K-Taro"
34 – 10
Well-Rounded42 yrsSouthpaw73" reach5'11"
CFR 14

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Emerson

This is a genuine toss-up — Emerson at 57% vs Nakamura at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Nakamura has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Emerson
Nakamura
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'11"
70"
Reach
+73"
44
Age
+42
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Emerson
Nakamura
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.1
13.7
42.0
Performance Avg
36.2
37
Quality of Victory
36
79
Momentum Score
26
Emerson
Nakamura
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.6
0.8
29%
Strike Accuracy
37%
4.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
17
Head
29
2
Body
3
7
Leg
0
RangeRange
21Distance26
3Clinch6
2Ground0
Emerson
Nakamura
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.6
/ 10
5.2
/ 10
1.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.6
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
5.0
0
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Emerson
Nakamura
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
84
86
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/30 fights
Chin rating based on
11/44 fights
Emerson
Nakamura
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
79
26
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Emerson
Nakamura
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
50%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
2
2
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Emerson
Nakamura
Striking4.3 / 0.7Volume6.3 / 4.7Grappling1.6 / 5.2Wrestling1.1 / 3.6Submission0.0 / 5.0Pressure3.8 / 4.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.2
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
3.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.6
6.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.7
Emerson
Strike Zones
Nakamura
Emerson
Attacking
17HEAD2BODY7LEGS26 landed
Absorbing
29HEAD3BODY0LEGS32 absorbed
Nakamura
Attacking
29HEAD3BODY0LEGS32 landed
Absorbing
17HEAD2BODY7LEGS26 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Emerson targets the head (65% of attacks) — Nakamura absorbs 65% of strikes there
🎯Nakamura targets the head (91% of attacks) — Emerson absorbs 91% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Emerson
RND
Nakamura
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Emerson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0104.5W5.0W2.8L5.7L4.5W5.5L2008-022008-082009-022009-092010-022010-03
WinLossTrend

Nakamura · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.5L5.5L5.5L6.3W5.5L5.2W6.0L4.5W5.5L4.5W5.5L2006-122015-092016-102018-122019-04
WinLossTrend

Emerson · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Nik LentzRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Gomi · 2010-03
W · Dec · R3
Phillipe NoverRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 109: Relentless · 2010-02
L · Dec · R3
Rafael Dos AnjosRating 5.7
Decision
UFC 103: Franklin vs Belfort · 2009-09
L · Sub · R2
Kurt PellegrinoRating 2.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lauzon vs Stephens · 2009-02
W · KO · R1
Manvel GamburyanRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 87: Seek And Destroy · 2008-08

Nakamura · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Sultan AlievRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik · 2019-04
W · Dec · R3
Salim TouahriRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa · 2018-12
L · Dec · R3
Anthony Rocco MartinRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee · 2018-04
W · Dec · R3
Alex MoronoRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Saint Preux vs. Okami · 2017-09
L · Dec · R3
Elizeu Zaleski dos SantosRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Dodson · 2016-10

News & Media

Rob Emerson · Keita Nakamura
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