UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC
Las Vegas, USA
14 Sept 2024
Women's Strawweight
VS
49%
Jauregui
51%
Souza
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 3:02
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Souza
This is a genuine toss-up — Jauregui at 49% vs Souza at 51% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Striking split: Jauregui throws more volume but Souza connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Jauregui's chin rating of 66 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Jauregui
Souza
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'3"
Height
5'3"
64"+
Reach
63"
27+
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Jauregui
Souza
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
40.9
42.9
45.0
Performance Avg
40.8
35
Quality of Victory
35
48
Momentum Score
40
Jauregui
Souza
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
3.1
1.4
44%
Strike Accuracy
56%
4.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
18
Head
12
8
Body
6
9
Leg
3
RangeRange
29Distance16
5Clinch4
1Ground1
Jauregui
Souza
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
1.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.3
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Jauregui
Souza
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
66
84
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/13 fights
Chin rating based on
7/22 fights
Jauregui
Souza
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
48
40
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Jauregui
Souza
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
33%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Jauregui
Souza
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.0
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.3
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
4.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.8
6.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.3
JaureguiSouza
Strike Zones
Jauregui
Attacking
35 landedAbsorbing
21 absorbedSouza
Attacking
21 landedAbsorbing
35 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Jauregui targets the head (51% of attacks) — Souza absorbs 51% of strikes there
🎯Souza targets the head (57% of attacks) — Jauregui absorbs 57% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Jauregui
RND
Souza
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Jauregui · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.1WinLossTrend
Souza · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Jauregui · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Ketlen SouzaRating 1.9Submission
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Souza · Last 5
Upcoming
Ariane CarnelossiUFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
W · Dec · R3
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L · Dec · R3
Angela HillRating 5.6Decision
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W · Sub · R1
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UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · 2024-09