UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Henderson
New Orleans, USA
6 Jun 2015
Bantamweight
VS
32%
Rivera
68%
Caceres
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 0:21
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Caceres
Caceres holds a meaningful edge at 68% per the CFR ratings — but Rivera has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 21 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Rivera has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.
Striking split: Rivera throws more volume but Caceres connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Rivera's chin rating of 58 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Caceres has a chin rating of 4 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Rivera
Caceres
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'10"
70"
Reach
+73"
44
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Rivera
Caceres
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.7
39.7
45.2
Performance Avg
42.2
49
Quality of Victory
34
69
Momentum Score
76
Rivera
Caceres
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.8
1.7
44%
Strike Accuracy
50%
8.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.7
3 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
0
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance0
0Clinch0
3Ground0
Rivera
Caceres
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
0.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.5
0.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Rivera
Caceres
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
58
4
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
5
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
18 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/18 fights
Chin rating based on
30/36 fights
Rivera
Caceres
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
69
76
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Rivera
Caceres
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
31%
3
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
4
1
Decision Wins
11
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Rivera
Caceres
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.7
0.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
0.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.5
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
6.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.8
2.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.1
RiveraCaceres
Strike Zones
Rivera
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
0 absorbedCaceres
Attacking
0 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Rivera targets the head (100% of attacks) — Caceres absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Rivera
RND
Caceres
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Rivera · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Caceres · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Rivera · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Erik PerezRating 5.5Decision
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley · 2016-07
L · Dec · R3
Brad PickettRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bisping · 2016-02
L · Sub · R1
John LinekerRating 1.5Submission
UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2 · 2015-09
W · KO · R1
Alex CaceresRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Henderson · 2015-06
L · Sub · R2
Urijah FaberRating 2.8Submission
UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II · 2014-12
Caceres · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Sean WoodsonRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05
L · Dec · R3
Giga ChikadzeRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. The Korean Zombie · 2023-08
W · Dec · R3
Daniel PinedaRating 5.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi · 2023-06
W · KO · R1
Julian ErosaRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland · 2022-12
L · Dec · R3
Sodiq YusuffRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev · 2022-03