UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira
Las Vegas, USA
19 Oct 2024
Flyweight
VS
40%
Nicolau
60%
Almabayev
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Matheus
Matheus Nicolau
19 – 6
5'6"66" reachOrthodox33 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 38
Asu
Asu Almabayev
"Zulfikar"
23 – 3
Well-Rounded2-fight win streak32 yrsOrthodox65" reach5'4"
CFR 58

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Almabayev

Almabayev holds a meaningful edge at 60% per the CFR ratings — but Nicolau has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 20 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Nicolau throws more volume but Almabayev connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Nicolau's chin rating of 32 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Nicolau
Almabayev
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"+
Height
5'4"
66"+
Reach
65"
33
Age
+32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Nicolau
Almabayev
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
38.0
57.9
44.7
Performance Avg
53.7
32
Quality of Victory
32
49
Momentum Score
83
Nicolau
Almabayev
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
0.5
52%
Strike Accuracy
59%
2.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.7
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
5
0
Body
0
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
1Distance3
0Clinch0
0Ground4
Nicolau
Almabayev
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.3
2.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Nicolau
Almabayev
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
32
78
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/25 fights
Chin rating based on
8/26 fights
Nicolau
Almabayev
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
49
83
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Nicolau
Almabayev
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
33%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
2
5
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Nicolau
Almabayev
Striking2.7 / 1.7Volume7.0 / 7.0Grappling2.9 / 4.3Wrestling2.0 / 3.0Submission1.4 / 3.3Pressure3.9 / 4.9
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.7
2.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.3
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
1.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
3.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.9
7.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.0
Nicolau
Strike Zones
Almabayev
Nicolau
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD0BODY2LEGS7 absorbed
Almabayev
Attacking
5HEAD0BODY2LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Nicolau targets the head (100% of attacks) — Almabayev absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Almabayev targets the head (71% of attacks) — Nicolau absorbs 71% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Nicolau
RND
Almabayev
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Nicolau · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0105.5W4.5W4.5W1.5L6.2W4.6W4.5W5.4W2.3L3.4L6.6L2015-112018-072022-032024-042024-10
WinLossTrend

Almabayev · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0106.1W4.5W5.1W4.7W4.5L5.4W6.8W2023-082024-062025-032025-11
WinLossTrend

Nicolau · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Asu AlmabayevRating 6.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10
L · KO · R2
Alex PerezRating 3.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez · 2024-04
L · KO · R1
Brandon RoyvalRating 2.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
W · KO · R2
Matt SchnellRating 5.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
W · Dec · R3
David DvorakRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus · 2022-03

Almabayev · Last 5

Upcoming
Charles Johnson
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · 2026-06
W · Sub · R3
Alex PerezRating 6.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Jose OchoaRating 5.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder · 2025-07
L · KO · R3
Manel KapeRating 4.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Matheus NicolauRating 4.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10

News & Media

Matheus Nicolau · Asu Almabayev
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