METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira
Las Vegas, USA
19 Oct 2024
Flyweight
VS
39%
Nicolau
61%
Almabayev
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Matheus
Matheus Nicolau
19 – 6
5'6"66" reachOrthodox33 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 38
Asu
Asu Almabayev
"Zulfikar"
23 – 3
Well-Rounded3-fight win streak32 yrsOrthodox65" reach5'4"
CFR 60
★ Official Result
Asu AlmabayevwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Matheus Nicolau · UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Almabayev
→
Actual result
Almabayev wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis

Almabayev holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Nicolau has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 22 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Risk flags

Nicolau's chin rating of 32 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
NicolauAlmabayev
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Nicolau
Almabayev
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"+
Height
5'4"
66"+
Reach
65"
33
Age
+32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Nicolau
Almabayev
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
38.0
59.7
44.7
Performance Avg
55.5
32
Quality of Victory
34
49
Momentum Score
83
Nicolau
Almabayev
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.7
/ 10
1.8
/ 10
3.9
Style: Pressure
5.6
7.0
Style: Volume
6.3
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
5
0
Body
0
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
1Distance3
0Clinch0
0Ground4
Nicolau
Almabayev
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.9
/ 10
4.8
/ 10
2.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.4
1.4
Submission Style (/10)
4.3
1
Submission wins
3
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Nicolau
Almabayev
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
32
78
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/25 fights
Chin rating based on
8/26 fights
Nicolau
Almabayev
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
49
83
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Nicolau
Almabayev
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
43%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
3
5
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Nicolau
Almabayev
Striking2.7 / 1.8Volume7.0 / 6.3Grappling2.9 / 4.8Wrestling2.0 / 3.4Submission1.4 / 4.3Pressure3.9 / 5.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.8
2.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.8
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.4
1.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.3
3.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.6
7.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.3
Nicolau
Strike Zones
Almabayev
Nicolau
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD0BODY2LEGS7 absorbed
Almabayev
Attacking
5HEAD0BODY2LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Nicolau targets the head (100% of attacks) — Almabayev absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Almabayev targets the head (71% of attacks) — Nicolau absorbs 71% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Nicolau
RND
Almabayev
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Nicolau · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Asu Almabayev
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10
L · KO · R2
Alex Perez
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez · 2024-04
L · KO · R1
Brandon Royval
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
W · KO · R2
Matt Schnell
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
W · Dec · R3
David Dvorak
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus · 2022-03

Almabayev · Last 5

W · Sub · R3
Charles Johnson
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · 2026-06
W · Sub · R3
Alex Perez
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Jose Ochoa
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder · 2025-07
L · KO · R3
Manel Kape
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Matheus Nicolau
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10

News & Media

Matheus Nicolau · Asu Almabayev
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