UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivac
Las Vegas, USA
4 Feb 2023
Welterweight
VS
8%
Kinoshita
92%
Fugitt
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:36
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Fugitt
Fugitt is a strong favourite at 92% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 36 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Fugitt has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 43 points.
Striking split: Kinoshita throws more volume but Fugitt connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Kinoshita's chin rating of 56 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Fugitt has a chin rating of 22 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Kinoshita
Fugitt
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'1"
71"
Reach
+77"
25+
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Kinoshita
Fugitt
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
3.4
39.1
0.0
Performance Avg
38.8
0
Quality of Victory
43
0
Momentum Score
41
Kinoshita
Fugitt
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
5.4
2.6
35%
Strike Accuracy
47%
0.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.7
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
16
1
Body
4
3
Leg
1
RangeRange
10Distance11
0Clinch4
0Ground6
Kinoshita
Fugitt
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.0
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Kinoshita
Fugitt
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
56
22
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
2/9 fights
Chin rating based on
6/16 fights
Kinoshita
Fugitt
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
41
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
Kinoshita
Fugitt
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Kinoshita
Fugitt
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.7
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
0.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
0.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.7
KinoshitaFugitt
Strike Zones
Kinoshita
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
21 absorbedFugitt
Attacking
21 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Kinoshita targets the head (60% of attacks) — Fugitt absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Fugitt targets the head (76% of attacks) — Kinoshita absorbs 76% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Kinoshita
RND
Fugitt
0/0R00/0
Kinoshita · QOF Timeline
Avg: 2.1WinLossTrend
Fugitt · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Kinoshita · Last 2
L · KO · R1
Billy Ray GoffRating 2.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. The Korean Zombie · 2023-08
L · KO · R1
Adam FugittRating 1.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivac · 2023-02
Fugitt · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Ty MillerRating 3.9KO/TKO
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
L · KO · R1
Islam DulatovRating 3.9KO/TKO
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
W · Dec · R3
Josh QuinlanRating 4.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira · 2024-06
L · Sub · R2
Mike MalottRating 4.5Submission
UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana · 2023-06
W · KO · R1
Yusaku KinoshitaRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivac · 2023-02