The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGregor vs. Team Faber Finale
Las Vegas, USA
11 Dec 2015
Lightweight
VS
50%
Barboza
50%
Ferguson
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 2:54
Edson
Edson Barboza
"Junior"
24 – 14
5'11"75" reachOrthodox40 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 45
Tony
Tony Ferguson
"El Cucuy"
26 – 11
Well-Rounded8-fight slide42 yrsOrthodox76" reach5'11"
CFR 45

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Barboza

This is a genuine toss-up — Barboza at 50% vs Ferguson at 50% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Ferguson has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Barboza's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Ferguson has a chin rating of 12 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Barboza
Ferguson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
5'11"
75"
Reach
+76"
40+
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Barboza
Ferguson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.9
45.2
46.3
Performance Avg
54.2
40
Quality of Victory
49
60
Momentum Score
52
Barboza
Ferguson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.9
46%
Strike Accuracy
47%
6.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.3
9 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
17
3
Body
4
1
Leg
4
RangeRange
10Distance18
0Clinch0
1Ground7
Barboza
Ferguson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.0
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.8
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Barboza
Ferguson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
12
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
4
KO/TKO Losses
2
2
Sub Losses
3
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
32/38 fights
Chin rating based on
24/37 fights
Barboza
Ferguson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
60
52
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
8-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · Sub · R4
L · KO · R2
Barboza
Ferguson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
60%
9
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
6
9
Decision Wins
6

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Barboza
Ferguson
Striking6.1 / 3.3Volume5.1 / 3.4Grappling1.2 / 3.8Wrestling0.8 / 2.7Submission0.0 / 4.0Pressure5.2 / 6.1
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.3
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.8
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.0
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.1
5.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.4
Barboza
Strike Zones
Ferguson
Barboza
Attacking
7HEAD3BODY1LEGS11 landed
Absorbing
17HEAD4BODY4LEGS25 absorbed
Ferguson
Attacking
17HEAD4BODY4LEGS25 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD3BODY1LEGS11 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Barboza targets the head (64% of attacks) — Ferguson absorbs 64% of strikes there
🎯Ferguson targets the head (68% of attacks) — Barboza absorbs 68% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Barboza
RND
Ferguson
0/0R00/0

Barboza · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.5W4.5W4.5W5.5W1.5L5.0W5.2W4.5W1.5L5.0W5.2W5.6L4.5W3.3L4.5W4.5W6.2W5.5L5.5L6.4W3.1L5.5L6.2L4.6W5.5W3.7L6.5L6.2W5.3W7.0L6.5L2.7L2010-112014-042017-032021-052025-12
WinLossTrend

Ferguson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.0W4.0W4.5W5.6L5.0W5.0W4.5W5.2W5.0W4.5W5.7W5.8W4.7W5.3W5.2W4.2W5.6L6.9L6.5L3.5L3.4L4.7L7.2L2.3L2011-062014-082016-112021-052024-08
WinLossTrend

Barboza · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Jalin TurnerRating 2.7
KO/TKO
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
L · Dec · R3
Drakkar KloseRating 6.5
Decision
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
L · Dec · R5
Lerone MurphyRating 7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · 2024-05
W · Dec · R5
Sodiq YusuffRating 5.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · 2023-10
W · KO · R1
Billy QuarantilloRating 6.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04

Ferguson · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Michael ChiesaRating 2.3
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Paddy PimblettRating 7.2
Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
L · Sub · R3
King GreenRating 4.7
Submission
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
L · Sub · R4
Nate DiazRating 3.4
Submission
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · KO · R2
Michael ChandlerRating 3.5
KO/TKO
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05

News & Media

Edson Barboza · Tony Ferguson
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